So…it all hinges on this 353 out of 10,000 plus representing the group in a meaningful way? We know that it does because…?
And how does this theorem apply here?
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This assumes that all of this voluntary information is accurate and up to date, for starters.
…back to ignoring the spreadsheet.
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It doesn’t apply, it’s just pie in the sky wishful thinking that a random spreadsheet of unvalidated data for a tiny group of people is useful. If anything it’s showing the desperation people have for actual updates to delivery, and how GF takes a page from the telecomm play book and says “somewhere between 8am in august and 9:30PM in December, please be ready to answer the door”.
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Thank you. Phrased better than I could have put it. 
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And with that one sentence @newbies_234 puts all political pollers, marketing managers, economists and multinational companies that rely on simple statistics out of business. The global economy and huge sections of the media collapse overnight
“The gig is up” they say, “the millions we made out of CLT has been exposed as just pure luck… you know ‘a million monkeys typing Shakespeare’ sort of stuff. We have been paying all those Statisticians with their College-learnin’ to perpetuate the myths that samples represent the whole… and we would have got away with it, if it weren’t for those meddlin’ kids”
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Because maths tells us it is a good sample size. It would only be inaccurate if the sample was not random in some way. Perhaps GF favour people on the list to make it look like they have shipped a lot more than they have. It would be odd if they did the opposite.
We can see they have delivered most but not all of day one basics and are just starting to deliver day one pros.
Do you think some people put false information up? Why would they do that?
People do update it when they get their golden email, their shipping notice and delivery. It might take them a day or two but it seems to match what they say in the forum. If the odd person forgets it doesn’t make much difference. We can still see when they start delivering day two orders, etc.
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…too busy ignoring the spreadsheet to respond. People need to go meditate or hug someone they love instead of worry about stuff like this.
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Well no reason to look at if you are not interested. Some of us would like some idea of when we will have a machine to use. It affects the order I do projects in. For other people they have business decisions to make.
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Truth. You’ve finally got it…
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I’m not looking at the spreadsheet. I’m reading through the forums.
Earnestly, I do wish you and others here a good journey through life. I think it could be improved with some mindfulness or love.
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Back when I would bicycle long distances sometimes it would help to do math in my head and figure if I maintain this average speed I’ll finish around… but other times I had to put the cyclometer on some obscure function so as not to torture myself. So I can kind of see it both ways. Seeing how there are so many unknown unknowns I’ll opt for ignoring the SWAG (silly wild a$$ guess).
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Beautiful
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Since when did profit and truth go hand in hand? hahahah. The second you start to work with statistics is the instant you realize how hard it is to get proper data to base it on and how easy it is to skew.
I should also add that i’m not saying statitiscs done properly has no value, but there’s no control here and plenty of variables to account for.
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You’re assuming they are saying in the forum that they got the email - or that they even came back to the forum after the filled out the initial portion of the spreadsheet. Way too many assumptionsfor this to be usable. No matter how many fancy theorums you throw out there.
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Good thing nobody is making anybody use it! Seems like something is making everyone argue about it though… I find it useful personally, the two people in front of me are in the same state as me, so I’m curious to see who gets theirs first.
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I think the spreadsheet is a cool thing.
It isn’t a predictor, and if you are watching it and smiling as more people get theirs, then it is brightening the world and is a useful tool.
If you are finding reasons to be mad, to find conspiracy, to take offense, and to hate on people, then beware Karma.
If you seek pleasant evidence in a spreadsheet, you will find it.
If you seek doom, you will find it.
If you ignore the spreadsheet, it will ignore you.
If you yell at the yellers, you feed the wrong wolf.
In the end, though, whether you seek sunshine or doom, people around you will appreciate unfounded optimism much more than unfounded gloom.
Just a tip.
My hearty congratulations to the line jumpers who got in to NY Maker Faire. That’s pretty great, I think.
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It definitely fulfills some curiosity - I’ll agree with that. But I think it stops there.
Incomplete as the spreadsheet is, it does give some insight. It shows a good number of day one preorders for basics have at least received their email, and it looks like production on day 2’s have started, at least a few have received emails.
The 100 or so promoted orders was not supposed to have much impact On everyone’s delivery times, it was assumed at the time it may only impact unpromoted orders by a day. It would seem they thought they would produce 100 units a day. The problem is, that does not seem to have happened. I’ll let @palmercr do the maths, but we are around day 50 of production, and at 100/day that would be half of production finished. Coincidentally, that means my own order would probably be on the production line right now.
I check the spreadsheet every day, I think it shows pretty clearly where production is, and I am quite happy with the sample size.
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Anyone trying the glean anything more than this from that page is expecting far more than a self-reported spreadsheet living on my google drive can provide.
I’m at the point where while I enjoy seeing the orders fulfilled and the colors changing but wondering if it’s causing more stress to others than it’s worth. I think it’s important to hold GF accountable to their dates to the best of their knowledge and ability but I can’t help but wonder now about the likely dozens of emails Dan & Co gets from people who are upset that a handful of customers further down the list got theirs first that wouldn’t otherwise have been sent.
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I think people would have figured it out without the spreadsheet.
The stress comes from the slow ramp up, and what I’m sure the company thought was a good idea.
Water under the bridge now.
I’ll start to get excited when I see a bunch of green rows fill up to 10/14/15
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