People who ordered months after the campaign are getting their Glowforges?

I think those of us opposed to the spreadsheet have been arguing this point the entire time. It’s simply going to cause more headache than aid simply due to the people it makes happy won’t post or email but those it upsets will post here upset, will post here confused, will post here frustrated. We opposed the spreadsheet not because of the benefits but because of the negatives.

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So poetic!

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The list may be flawed but its all we have. It’s watch the list or wait for the September update. I think the list has more useful information than the updates at this point flawed or not.

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So you don’t like seeing reality and would rather have blind faith in the forum banner that says they will all be delivered by end of Nov 17, just as it said August 17, Dec 16, Summer 16, Dec 15.

You don’t believe in maths, which is the only thing in life that is guaranteed to never be found to be false.

People are joining the spreadsheet much faster than people on the spreadsheet are getting their machines, so perhaps it will have nearly everybody long before we all get our machines.

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math itself may be true, but analysis of said math is not always true. :wink:

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Statistics is to (depending on application) math what astrology is to astronomy. The error bars on this have to be HUGE. No, I’m not preaching blind faith just saying that it needs to be acknowledged that the sheet may or may not give a clear picture of what is really happening.

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No, I just realize that life is too short. I’m here until I get it and I’ll get it when it’s here.

No spreadsheet tracking will make it happen any faster. But it will cause worry, and trigger unfounded extra frustration, confusion, and worry. It is the metaphorical “poking the sleeping bear.” And I doubt many are getting much more pleasure seeing the delivered dates fill in than joy gotten from seeing a new thread reporting it right here.

Continue seeing everything in the worst possible light as makes you happy.

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That’s a rather negative outlook… Some people certainly get plenty of joy out of the seeing the updates on the spreadsheet.

I, for one, am very excited to see that I am next in line on the spreadsheet (at the time of this post) to get my Basic Golden Email.

How is that a bad thing?

People would complain about others getting their’s ahead of others even if it wasn’t easier to see on the spreadsheet. But I wouldn’t know that I am up next without it.

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Pretty sure we can all agree disgruntled people speak out more than satisfied people. Therefore:

A minority of the people like you will cheer on the forums.

People like me are apathetic either way. Glad people are getting them. I’ll be happy to get mine when it comes. So no care either way really. The spreadsheet ought to be a good thing.

People who don’t know about GFs policies see how it’s fills and feel shafted or what have you and come complain. Others who know see it rubbed in their faces and come complain.

Have to say the number of negative threads filled with negativity of one kind or another(whether just angry acceptance or vehement arguing about fairness against GFs policies) are pretty far ahead of threads started to rejoice over others who have been given theirs. Plenty of threads started by said recipients by not the same.

So no, I’m not seeing it negatively. Fact is people respond more to negative than positive and this is where they respond. They have a real get to said feelings, but we could prevent much of the cause by not holding it up in front of them.

If people were more as you or I, there’d be no issue at all with the spreadsheet. People would involve themselves with it(whether actively or passively) as you are(actively) or they’d not bother, like me.

You must not have read the majority of my other posts. :wink:

I agree that many people who do not peruse the forums regularly see the spreadsheet without context. However, they generally are given said context quite quickly by others on here when they come to vent their frustration (as is the case on this very thread).

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There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. – Benjamin Disraeli via Mark Twian

The thing that people doing the math here seem to be forgetting is that manufacturing tends to follow an “S” curve. It will ramp very slowly, being a small fraction of the factory’s capacity, while problems are found and fixed. The rate will then hit an exponential increase leading to a steep linear increase before starting to level off near planned capacity.

Extrapolating completion dates while in the problem-fixing startup phase is erroneous. And presenting such extrapolations as “facts” or “that’s the math” is outright deceitful.

Moreover, it is hard to see, especially with the limited info we have, when the “knee” of the exponential curve will be. I would expect the the folks at Glowforge and Flex are in a far better position to predict this.

Yes, they may still slip again, but I doubt it will be as dire as some of the mathematicians insist it will be based on their linear interpretations of the spreadsheet data.

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The actual number of units that need to be manufactured is also an unknown. While an early number quoted by GF was in excess of 10,000 units, that was before all the delays and the waves of cancellations that have certainly followed each announcement.

The real number is likely much lower.

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To be fair, yes. I was directly respond to that post in isolation of others.

And while there were waves, at some point @dan has stated that up until he’d said it, it was less than 1%. To be fair again, I can’t locate it right now. I’m not certain if this was after the first April delay or after this past December delay though.

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If I could like this 10 more times, I would!

A politician and an author dissing maths, although the former is probably an expert in lies.

Where did I present a deceitful extrapolation?

This isn’t an extrapolation. It is simply fact. If they suddenly ramp up production so we see three deliveries on the spread sheet per day they will be on track. Every day they don’t they will need to ramp up a to a higher level.

Yes everybody expects them to ramp up production but they are leaving it awfully late. There is now only 101 days left.

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Are. “There are now only 101 days left.” If you’re being consistently pedantic.

People have been waiting for nearly 2 years. Pretty sure things would be just as negative without the spreadsheet as with. If people weren’t complaining about later orders being filled first, theyd be complaining about the lack of information.

I don’t think the spreadsheet is an accurate representation of what’s going on because I don’t think forum users are a random sampling of people who’ve ordered. But I also don’t think there’s any harm in it. It gives people something to do, to focus on. Some people like to obsess over the numbers, others like to stockpile supplies, others like to learn software and new programs, others like to collect project ideas, and a million other things that just fill time while the vast majority of us are just waiting.

I don’t like math, and I don’t put much stock in the conclusions people are trying to draw, but I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people who do. I mean, except that they’re doing math for fun. Some people have weird hobbies.

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The more I wait, the more I distrust Glowforge in their promises to deliver in time and in order in which the people ordered their printer…
The only happy people in this forum and the most actives are probably early adopter / beta testers that could use something to show off on forum to the most of the backers that they are privileged backers…
As far as what @dan says, it doesn’t matter if you believe it or not, that is the company’s word… ah
Their policy is clearly: “Take it or leave it”, and it has been like that for almost 2 years.
I am just upset to see that breaking promises on and on doesn’t seem to be an ethical problem and more the result of poor estimations made by individuals claiming they had everything figured out the whole way.
It was oversold to the public w unreasonable delivery dates under a crowdfunding shield that was not really clear to all of us, I was reading pre-order on the main page not crowdfund our product… that is way different and it has been proven they changed the page and the said about their campaign as it went on…
Few materials to top the products is just some honey on a big toast of piled failures to make it sweeter and balance the bitterness 90 percent of us are tasting from that sweet deal.
I am actually living in the bay area, not far from where it is shipping from… So frustrating to see units going out far away and still no email news on mine which is a pro unit twice the price as the based one was… mehhhhh all the way.
Nothing good, this is a clear sign of a very dark ages upcoming with their support team for any issues.
I can’t even wrap my head around it…
Thanks for all the kind words dear GF Team! it doesn’t make up for anything so far to me, at all. For real.
words, words, words, words < Actions

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i’m not sure why, their support team always seems to be responsive and capable enough, or willing to reship when things go catastrophically awry.

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If you go to the Internet Archive there are snapshots of glowforge.com on 9/24/2015 and 9/28/2015. As of 9/28, which is when I placed my order, it clearly had crowdfunding language on the front page “$1,023,347 sold in 4 days of our $100,000 goal (1023% funded)”