Schedule update (December '16)

Announcements
370

It is impressive that amount of money that you have committed to your GF :glowforge: products.

Understand that the $31 Million from investors and $45 Million from those who have committed to owning Glowforges have different draw downs from. Operations are currently being funded from the $31M and as they get closer to shipping the monthly amount will increase, but refunds are coming out of the $45M.

If monthly operating costs are around $1M to $1.5M, over 6 months time (May/June), then $6M to $10M will have been consumed. During this time frame, hopefully between 2,000 to 3,000 GF’s :glowforge: will have shipped. Once the units start getting into owners hands, that will calm those who have purchased and encourage another look by those who have decided to apply their monies elsewhere.

If I had to put a number on the refunds, I would say 10% to 15% will occur over the next few weeks. I would guess that upwards of 30% (3,000 units) of current purchases could realistically request a refund by July/August.

Bankruptcy for the company is a possibility, but it is less than likely in the 6 month time range. Now if it is referring to you, you obviously can get a refund on one or all the items you have purchased.

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371

To @scottmillersb and the rest of the ranters.

I have read the 300+ posts to date and I get all of the anger and disappointment, you can add me to that category. That’s life, many things get us angry or let us down. The bottom line is that Dan and Glowforge owe you nothing but a laser cutter. They don’t owe you updates, they don’t owe you peeks into the tech, and they don’t owe you a specific ship date on your unit.

What they do owe you is a complete machine that works and that’s it, period. Dan has made it very, very clear that they are using VC money produce these machines and that the money paid by customers will not be booked until each unit is shipped. So they are not using your money to make these things and you can have it back any time that you want, just hit the cancel button and 10 days later you will be fully whole for your payment.

And I will say that I agree with kennethclapp on how the VC’s feel about the company. They put up a lot more than you did and I would bet my socks that they asked Dan some really hard questions, seems like they got some good answers. Unlike you all they actually own a part of the company, they have a lot more at stake. And if this all goes belly up, they get nothing back.

If you have ever invested in start-ups, I am in two right now, you would know very clearly that there are no guarantees, none. It is gambling pure and simple. You may win, you may lose. When we win we generally win big. When we lose it is almost always 100%. That is not the case with Glowforge, you can cash out. Take that path if you want a sure thing. If I am the current VC’s I am looking to either get this company on the retail road or to groom it for sale. If that takes an extra 6 months to protect the millions I have invested then that is what it takes. The reality is that Glowforge is not using your money to operate and creating a return on the VC investment is really what this is all about for those firms.

Just like Tesla or any other company that asks you for your money up front for a product, you take a chance. Just like the stock market, just like putting money up for a new restaurant, just like lending money to a flaky friend. You can lose it all in those endeavors. The refund from Glowforge may not last forever, take it now if you feel so hurt and betrayed, they will gladly send you back every penny.

Again, Dan and Glowforge don’t owe you anything but the machine you paid for. The fact that he communicates at all is has not gone into complete stealth mode is noteworthy. He and VC backers know what they have to do to get a return on the investment and keep the company viable in the future. They need to sell more machines than just the first wave and to do that the product needs to work. It is clear that it does not meet their standards right now. We all are caught up in the maelstrom of creation with them and while it may not be comfortable it is the process that ensures either a viable consumer based company or an acquisition target for the future.

This is gambling and if you can’t accept that you had better leave the casino. At least this gambling establishment comes with a money back guarantee, not something they offer in Vegas last time I checked.

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372

Heh. I don’t know any of the numbers. I don’t know who - outside of a very elite and closed group - does. It’s not a public company. It’s not illegal to lie to customers, and blowing up numbers seems like a fairly legit way of building trust. The investors know the real numbers, I am certain. But you, me, most of the employees. Not that likely.

I don’t know how much of that initially kickstarted funds is left.

If everything ends up being just perfect - the money lasts and the PR backlash from the customers is forgotten and new clients swarm the release - then the people asking for a refund is actually good for the company. More money per unit!

That’s not that good for the founders tho’. They have been out of their cash for years with nothing to show for it. It’s not a win/win situation.

Peter.

373

You’re missing the fact that these things don’t exist. At all. Not even on the drawing board. Simply a placeholder for options that may one day be created maybe possibly maybe.

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374

You want to watch his last Q&A video. The numbers raised are from that video (VC and Crowdfunded) and I believe he referenced the operations funds coming out of the VC funds.

He did say they have 40 people on staff and somewhere (I think) he references the monthly expenses.

Also, @dan stated that hundreds of units will be produced per month during the next 6 months timeframe (100 to 300 is what I based the quantities on) and if you did a 100+100+200+200+200+300 you still get 1100 units shipped, but that make over a 1000 delivered units which encourages everyone.

Please be careful with terms like “lie”, “deceit”, “fraudulent”, “scam” (as others use them), because other than being overly optimistic (which is what most company founders and visionaries are) and really wanting to get the product out the door (which is where @dan was at the being of November, but had to resign himself to another delay), he has been probably too personal in his communications (with hopes, optimisms and giddiness) with the owners in general.

If Glowforge had been a public company, very little if any useful communications would have occurred (especially form the CEO). I think with what he has referred to as “middle of the road” communications (in the Q&A), he still needs to refine frequency and balance between what he reveals to owners, staff and investors (spinning plates on to of sticks) that meets legal requirements, owner motivations and company longevity.

While excited about watching his company develop, I don’t envy one iota the demands placed on him. Compare how he looks in earlier Q&A’s and pictures to his appearance now and you can see how it has affected him.

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375

Don’t know if this will help ease concerns about how much money Glowforge has actually received from investors, but @jbmanning5 linked this elsewhere:

If you click on “series A” or what have you, it will show the amount each investor put in. That’s how they avoid spending the money we all put down on our machines. Hope that provides some comfort! :grin:

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376

Great points! Though I’ll add the crowdfunding model of funding and supporter-buyer engagement is changing traditional expectations —driven partially through the challenge that crowdfunding usually sets the expectations as imminent product buyer more than a missional investor.

Assumptions have thus changed about who is a stakeholder and their resulting communication relationships. Paid customers have a level of urgency and legitimacy that requires careful balance because individually the buy-in power may only seem what it is: $3k–$5k/person. But greater influence power can be mobilized through a brand community, cross-comms and influencership that turns them into a dangerous constituency notwithstanding they are not VC shareholders.

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377

Well said. I have recently had the opportunity to work on a project that was still in development. Very different from plain production and what you said is spot on. Most folks don’t realize these things as they have never gone through it.

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378

I think what @scottmillersb wants is something more in the way of assurances than what was present in the verbiage of the last 3 delays - I know that the way @dan communicates is not what I would prefer, but continuing on the same path of “trust me, this time 6+ months of delay is really where we will ship” without anything but his word (which doesn’t count for much when it comes to schedule) is just not working.

No one needs to get a detailed timeline. In any schedule there are certain milestones that would make everyone feel good about things. For example, this round of beta units is probably using soft molds for the plastics to finalize details. If that is the case, the hard tooling is a major milestone - Share when that is planned to complete.

That was just one example. Now, @dan has not wanted to do that in the past, and unfortunately I am not sure he will do this moving forward. I believe there are other things that can be done. I think like me, several other customers don’t want to get shiny marketing videos. The crummy quality maker faire videos were awesome. Lets have more of those. Put the cell phone on an engrave piece. Show us the nice medallion engraving - Other forum members keep making excuses as to why that can’t be done (takes to look to post process, they have to focus on shipping,etc).

I know I am hanging around a few more days to give the team an opportunity to communicate how they plan on getting us assurances that 7 more months of wait will actually get people an unit. I don’t know what that will look like, but I do know that what they have done over the last 12 months has not been sufficient.

@dan has mentioned that he does plan to continue a monthly update. That to me would be sufficient (as long as he himself admitted, there arent 3-4 months of silence from the company). GIve us something concrete in those updates (like a home made video of functionality), and that will go a long way.

There are 11 beta testers right now. Maybe one of them will be kind enough to do a 3D engrave of the Glowforge medallion and post it? They can certainly help on that regard in showing those of us without a unit some of the things that everyone wants to see.

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379

Beta testers aren’t allowed to take requests. Pre-productions testes are though! @marmak3261?

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380

They aren’t allowed to take requests. That doesnt mean they don’t want to or will do one.

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381

lolling.

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382

Hi there! Hello! Yet another normal forum user, here, to make some excuses. :grin: (supposed to be in good humor, but I can’t always tell how I come across)

I don’t really think this is always as simple as people think. There are tons of things that Dan and the Glowforge team have to take into consideration when anything goes public. One example of this that I can think of off the top of my head is when Dan almost named a problematic part on the live Q&A that could have caused problems with their relationship with the part provider. Had he done so and people knew that Manufacturer X (Acme, I think they used in the video) made the defective part, they would take that as slander. I think it is the same, to a certain extent, with things like pictures and video. For instance, they may not have finalized the software part of 3D engraving but have gotten to the point where the hardware can make it happen using complicated and inefficient methods. So, it’s just a matter of finishing software, but you put out a video of some wacky laser head dancing weirdly around above a piece of wood to complete the engrave and everybody adds that to their feelings about Glowforge and future potential investors or customers question the company’s abilities based just on that video rather than the whole story. I can’t wait for more videos, pictures, and information. All I’m saying is that I don’t think it’s that simple. (Also, even the way Dan has to word excuses about not being able to get it done is probably not that simple. Some of that may just be his personality, though.)

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383

Oh my, that’s what I get for typing on my phone.

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384

I just went out to buy a bigger Hopper™ for myself. Wait just a tad. I’ll give folks an opportunity to contribute, share, and enjoy!

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385

Vote of no confidence in @dan

386

If you really feel that way, you should probably ask for a refund, then, since leaving your money involved is pretty explicitly a vote of support.

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387

I feel bad for the people that received a credit when I used their referral code.

According to the cancelation information they will also loose their credit for referring me.

I don’t remember what member’s referral code I used but sorry bro you are out $100.00.

Your referral payment, and the payments of anyone who referred you, will be cancelled

Each time you refer someone else who buys a Glowforge, you get another $100 added to the total referral payment you’ll get when your order ships. Cancellation will permanently delete any and all referral payment.

If you purchased with a friend’s referral code, you lose that discount and their referral payment is deleted as well when you cancel.

388

I am voting with my money and have no confidence in Dan’s ability to turn this around in any significant way. At some point I do believe that Glowforge unit will ship but under Dan’s stewardship I think the product will suffer and will ultimately be sold to another company that can produce a mature product.

389

I’ll give you another year, but that’s it!

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