Shipping estimate pushed back but why?

I couldn’t figure out a better way to shorten my question for the subject line. The “shipping orders from day x” number continues to climb, but my personal shipping estimate was pushed back. I ordered my GF on day 28 (currently it says shipping day 24) but my ship date went from December 22 to January 4! Did that many more people order at the very end or are they expecting something happen to cause such a huge delay?

I don’t have any special info, but I believe that a huge portion of the orders during the 30 day preorder were placed in the last 5 days (as much as 50%?). If that’s even close to accurate, that would potentially explain some of that. I’m also going to assume that the holidays will create a delay of one sort or another (manufacturing, packing, shipping).

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If those numbers are accurate, it would certainly explain things. I just hadn’t heard anything about it. And things just weren’t adding up in my head.

They also seem to be making far more Pros right now vs. the number of Basics. And the date will move around depending on how many people accept, how fast the line is working that week, etc. Maybe they also threw some common sense into the algorithm and decided your date, the last working day before Christmas week, might need to be pushed back. Who knows if the factory will be operating that week.

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Also, just in case it wasn’t clear from rpegg’s response and you didn’t already know this, the “estimated shipping date” is based on an algorithm whose inputs are not fully known to us, and it’s updated at Glowforge’s discretion, so the estimated dates are expected to bounce around a bit as the input data is updated.

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Its because theyre focusing on Pros from now until some unspoken time in the future. Apparently a long time.

When they started, they focused on basics, but they had so many problems and delays that they didnt get very far before switching focus. So, for a couple of months (or weeks, I don’t remember) they were only shipping basics. Now theyre focusing on pros, but shipping and manufacturing problems are sorted, so theyre moving those more quickly.

If the estimated dates are right, I’ll see my unit in February or March (I ordered Oct 22, estimated email is Jan 16th right now). So I except there are a good chunk of basic preorders that are after me, too.

Edit: I should clarify, this is my interpretation. They confirmed they switched manufacturing focus and stuff, but I don’t really know exactly when people ordered and are expecting their units. Maybe there are only a few of us non-international orders delayed until next year.