Oh, that flat cable gave me grief. when the lid was unglued, it came out faulty. I had to trace the tracks to find what was wrong. I would’ve appreciated a different placement of the cable or a different type of cable, but hey, that is a very minor issue that I cannot complain about. At least mine had a large cable.
It is certainly true that there are weak places in the design that 20-20 hindsight has no doubt sorted out. In the place of the black cable these have been reconfigured several times. In the place of that weak point in the high voltage cable I can only imagine that like making sure the newest version of the black cable is installed, looking at those places known to be a problem would be looked at and replaced if getting worn. This alone will make them better than new as issues not picked up would be addressed.
I studied my latest machine looking for evidence like crud in hard to get at areas, but the only thing that told me it was a refurb was the older design for the exhaust that it would take the newer case as well to make the change.
I’m curious, could you help me figuring out to know if my machine has an older design for the exhaust?
I suspect but cannot prove that if there is any ranking at all, the machines that came in with the least problems (or none as is often the case) and looked the best will be the first to go out and those like my first machine with the steel sheet glued on to hold the magnets would be the last if at all.
So your math does not contain those points and therefore not close to the facts.
It is very possible that the machines actually got worst after a certain change in the design. It could even be in the shipping. I think my first was delivered by Fedex, the last one arrived by UPS. Maybe it is random? I don’t know.
Circumstantial and no data, but maybe that’s why there are people with 5 years old machines still working fine? it could be just pure luck to get a longevous unit tho.
Regarding the factors in the model, the higher order of events chained is dominant over the other factors. Even forgetting the number “38%”, the important thing here is that, given that chained events, in more than one owner, that strongly signals that the pool they are using for sending refurbished machines has a higher percentage of defective machines.
To your point about machines changing with time, it is possible that the problem of a high percentage of defective refurbished machines lasted for a period of time, say, 18 months, which is about the time I have had the experiences. Who knows? If the last machine broke tomorrow, I will know that was not the case