Has the cost of the consumables for the filter been officially announced?
The estimated delivery of our filters is always about 90 days from whenever you look, check again in a month and I bet it will say May.
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Wow, I forgot about the air filter. 
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Where in my account can I see the air filter ship date? I can’t seem to locate it. I didn’t think it would take 4 years for this.
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For the fist time, the wait dropped from the usual 95 days down to 74 days, this could mean that they finally started making air filters or are going to start moving the date again. It’s super annoying that they don’t let us know a thing about it.
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I am an original backer and I can confirm that the date has shifted by quite a few months once again. It was scheduled for the end of February but has now been shifted to some time in July. I would be great if they would just say the delivery date is unknown instead of constantly shifting it when the delivery date is a month away. This is about the 4th time this has happened over the last 3+ years.
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Been there, done that. Everyone complained. Wanted estimates. So, estimates they got.
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You can just see that and not worry about it. I understand that expectations change but would like to see the present estimate, if you don’t just don’t look 
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This is fair, and I tend to not look, but the multiple years of having the date change 1 month before delivery every time is a bit ridiculous. Not looking is a good enough solution, but doesn’t actually address the problem. I am more than fine with waiting, it’s the part where they seem to always be lying that’s the issue for me. But I guess it’s an argument about principle more than anything else.
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Best guess is just that. After bouncing back and forth my Glowforge actually arrived “early” making me scramble for a place to put it. when I was resigned to be waiting several more weeks but that was still better than the generic date for everyone that stood for for several months after I bought mine promising new buyers we would both get the machines by the same day while folk who had bought years before me had not received theirs, and they had paid thousands less.
The moving date was a big improvement over that.
The latest Architectural design software also is setup for planning that in a huge resort complex you can set up planning so that you can say that electricians will be installing plug plates and fixtures in room 322 in the morning of Aug 23, 2028. The software will be that tight in planning but somehow I suspect that the chances of that prediction being accurate before the first shovel of dirt is moved is not something you want to bet the farm on.
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Yes. I think we can accept that an estimate made in good faith can be wrong, and that things can come up that throw that estimate off. An estimate that stays static for months and gets within a UPS shipping window of being reached before being postponed by exactly five months starts to no longer look like a good faith estimate. Especially when it happens over and over and over.
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Stuff happens over and over. Sometimes it is a new set of actions that saves an hour, and multiply that by a thousand Glowforges and it can be pretty significant. Maybe somebody drops one and the batch being made is smaller so you get sent to the next batch. which is behind the batches of the ones you did not buy. Perhaps promised deliveries arrive late or worse they arrive but are faulty so work has to be undone while the faulty ones are sorted out. Even a flu bug or a bad winter storm can affect production a lot. It might be interesting to get that level of detail, but that end result is the key information.
As I noted my original shipping date jumped forward nearly a month at the last minute, perhaps because someone decided to wait for the filter and I got added at that last minute to the batch I had not been in. Stuff happens.
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So for months through January 16 there was a good faith estimate that UPS would have my unit at my door by January 30, but on January 17 the good faith estimate is that it is going to take another five months? For the I’ve-lost-track-of-how-many-times time? I don’t think it’s because someone in Guadalajara dropped one.
Stuff does happen. I maintain that if I’ve paid $4000+ for something that I’ve waited 40 months for, I’m owed some explanation of what that stuff is.
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You perhaps got $2000+ in more value that happened.
“Perhaps” is indeed the operative word, because thus far I have $0.00 in value.
Notably, when I ordered, my preorder price was touted as $3,000 cheaper than retail. It is currently more like $1,500 if I were to buy it today with a referral code and it seems likely I would not get it appreciably later.
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The thing is, everyone understands that things happen. There are manufacturing issues and all sorts of unpredictable things that can go wrong especially when dealing with this type of equipment ( we are talking about the air filters not the glowforge by the way ). The problem I raised is the fact that over the last few years, seriously years the pattern that has been used is a date gets set, and then when that date gets within a 1 month range it gets pushed out by multiple months, for almost everyone. Not just one or two people. Again, it makes sense that there are issues and surprises happen in manufacturing, but when it’s the same thing on repeat multiple times a year for multiple years, it gets a bit insulting. Why is it so much to ask for adequate messaging early on when things are not going to be on time? If any large scale manufacturing project is not going to hit a shipping deadline you know way further in advance than a month before you have told customers that they could reasonably expect delivery.
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I used to have someone try to teach me how to estimate construction so folk could bid on jobs and be at the lowest price that they could make a profit. I could do a fine job of listing the cost of materials and know how much waste was likely, but estimating the labor time, even back when I was the only one doing the labor was definitely a carp shoot and not in a barrel. most of the time my estimate was way low thanks to stupid stuff that what might have been an hour or so was days.
That was all a lot more straight forward than inventing stuff, much less common screw-ups so I am far more willing to be patient and only pencil in the plans as even this last delivery that took much preparation was still a day late.
True. But you do know on a job if you’re not tracking to your estimate and generally not the week or month before product release. My guys make awful estimates too but by tracking the task burndown I know pretty quickly if the burndown velocity isn’t enough to meet our dates.
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