Discussion of October 2017 update

Me too. I ordered on 10/25/15, I’m scheduled for Jan 31. Until today, I was still holding out hope that I’d have it in time to use it for fun and creative Christmas gifts for family members.

Sadly, for the first time, I’m really reconsidering this order. I expect that the Glowforge will be an awesome toy, but it’s one that I have hoped to use to make Christmas gifts for TWO Christmases now. The main reason I’ve stuck it out is a variant of the sunk cost fallacy – if I later end up buying one, I would have cost myself $2k over having stuck with the crowdfunded version.

To me, watching the people who already have one posting all their awesome work is kind of the opposite of inspiring. It’s just incredibly frustrating – it feels like I’m the kid standing at the window of the candy store watching all my friends eating candy but I’m not allowed in. Consequently, I usually just avoid those posts.

I’m gonna sleep on it for a few days; see if I feel any better about it when the initial shock fades off.

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Its a pity this isn’t a public company. Getting a look at their financials would really inform a decisions about whether to wait the extra three months or jump ship. One has to wonder if they can make it long enough to deliver.

If you look at what they took in in the preorder, what’s been made public about their investment rounds, you can guess at how much cash they had. Take that and estimate a BOM cost per unit and burn rate based on how many employees they say they had. Project that out three months. I’m skeptical…

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I know that the reality is different but sometimes the words sort of cause kinks of the mind.
“I really hate all the smell of smoke so I am going to go hide in the Smoky Mountains” is just such a set of words :roll_eyes:

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I have… with consumer retail webcams and networking gear. When we started manufacturing our own webcams (prior products were all networking or speakerphone products), it took a lot longer to get the line set and tuned as well as procedures refined to hit our quality expectations than we predicted and we had been manufacturing at volume for a long time. Just adding the issues with video tech created a serious learning curve. We ended up winning awards for quality, but we missed some dates first. This is why I have expressed patience. I’d rather have an awesome product than have a half-assed V1 product that could have been something and see those with V2 looking back at us as suckers.

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My wife just moved from Healdsburg a few years ago and had been working for wineries out there, so we’re quite emotional for you and our friends in wine country. Stay safe. We keep hoping to hear that they have contained the fires and stopped the destruction. So many sad stories and some wonderful ones too. https://www.facebook.com/beckyjeanwiden/posts/10159466529175574?pnref=story

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Dan is taking a lot of bullets right now. Maybe he deserves them, maybe not. But there is one thing that I am very sure of right now. He is numb to the onslaught of criticism. Responding to the anger and frustration is just part of his job now and nothing more. I am not saying he enjoys it, but he has come to accept it and deals with it just like he does a thousand other things in his day. No more important and no less than anything else.

How do I know this? I work in a profession that is plagued by delay at every turn, all the time, without exception. My clients are among the most frustrated people in Northern California. My job is to get new, high end single family residences approved in the small wealthy hillside communities of Silicon Valley. With the overwhelming regulations and the snail’s pace and hostility of the approving bodies, it can take 2-3 years to get a single family house approved for construction. And these people do not have thousands at risk like Glowforge buyers, it is hundreds of thousands in design costs and fees and millions in construction.

I have to deal with the anger and frustration of my clients and deal with a system that will not produce results as fast as I would like and that is full of ways the whole thing can go sideways. Sound familiar Dan? So I listen to my clients, talk them off the ledge, remain positive and then go and do my job. I am numb as well to that side of the business. My clients, just like the Glowforge buyers, have no idea what it takes to get their project approved or their machine built. The process is a black box to them.

And I will tell you something else. All of us in my profession keep it that way. None of us reveal the secrets of how we get done what we get done. Why would we and then have everyone doing it. Dan is building an advanced machine that has little or no competition right now. It would be death for him to reveal the inner workings of the company and give a competitor an edge. I do the same thing.

So the net result? You separate, as Nate Silver says, the signal from the noise. My clients and Glowforge customers are the noise. My main goal is to keep them just happy enough so that they do not go somewhere else while I try to follow the signal and navigate the bottomless pits and brick walls that are the approval process and in Dan’s case, the manufacturing process.

Do not think for a minute that what Glowforge is doing is easy, like my job it isn’t. Dan doesn’t and can’t care at any level more than trying to keep you as a customer, and he shouldn’t. And that is because he knows one thing absolutely for sure, he reads it every single day on the forum. When people do get their machines they are happy. Not just happy, they are excited, productive, creative, and satisfied. And in time they forget the wait, and the anger, and just enjoy their machine. Just like my clients get on with their lives and love their new homes no matter the delay.

Dan stopped fretting about your anger long ago and rightly so. He has a machine to build and a company to maintain. And if all of the screaming heads want a product of this caliber in this market right now, they are going to wait. Dan knows this, I know this. Dan and I share one thing when it comes to what I do and the Glowforge, if you all could do this yourselves you would, but you can’t, so you hired us.

I care about my clients and I am sure Dan cares about his customers, but in the end you are all just noise and we have a job to do.

Now get back to work Dan and get my damn Glowforge to me!

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Well, that was noisy.

:slight_smile:

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Working in the same industry as Flex, trust me, alot of the delays is probably out of Glowforge’s and the factory’s control. I can make educated theories of what’s happening thats delaying the builds. It’s not as simple of buying more line time, authorizing overtime or expediting fees on the material. Dan is taking the front of it as yes, Glowforge us ultimately accountable but he’s not going to share the details.

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Completely laughing out loud. Nobody who does what I do is impressed with themselves. We just survive the process and hope to come out with a good result. I am constantly aware that most of my success is out of my control and that I can only do the best I can. I’ll leave being impressed with themselves to someone else.

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FWIW - I got my Pro four days ago. I was 8/10 excited for the last two years, I saw one at Makerfaire Seattle a month ago and jumped to 14/10 excited, and after getting it… it’s SO MUCH COOLER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE.

It definitely sucks to wait longer, but I will yell from the rooftops it’s worth it.

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Everyone who ordered a basic on or after October 22 seems to be next year. So that’s a fair chunk of people, I expect.

I ordered the 22nd, and my estimated date is Jan 4th. Someone else mentioned they ordered the 23rd and their date is mid-late January. Which I suspect probably means there are either a ton of basic orders on those days. Or basics are going on the back burner for a long ttime.

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The sad thing is at this point i don’t care how cool the product is or how much i like it once i get it, I can’t recommend the company itself to anyone.

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Ya a little too long for me, too many delays, canceled my order today, maybe when they get themselves together in a couple years.

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@david3 My job is hard too… I suspect many people on this forum have hard jobs too. I also enjoy the hard work I do and see where it delivers value so maybe I am lucky and while hard I keep coming back to it for that reason.

I see Dan and the GF team as being more in that camp and as such want to deliver a high quality product rather than “just enough”. For me you missed that point. I believe that enough that I am not canceling my order and, from what you put in your post, is a big difference between yours and Dan’s jobs.

You sure do sound like an important person in your industry so good luck to you and I hope you find happiness with your Glowforge and make cool stuff for your customers :+1:t2::grinning:

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Just logged in to check when I can expect my glowforge to be shipped. This past summer I indicated that I wanted to wait until the air filters shipped, which were expected for October. I now see that my air filter is scheduled to ship March 2018, with no indication of when my glowforge will be shipped:

Estimated Shipping Notification Date
Product Shipping
Air Filter Mar 11, 2018

This information is our best forecast based on scheduled production rates. Our forecasting software is still in beta. Your estimated date will be updated regularly as new information becomes available.

Seriously? This is absolutely ridiculous. I ordered a basic on 9/25/2015. If I expected the air filters to be delayed this long, I wouldn’t have waited. Is there anything I can do to get my glowforge sooner?

Contacting support@glowforge.com would be my very best suggestion.

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@billy No, I am not important by any stretch. Being an expert at what you do does not make one important, it merely makes one an expert. I work for some important people but that is as close as I get. To be perfectly frank I would love to be well off and anonymous…

If you have not gotten your Glowforge I wish you the same upcoming enjoyment, if you have one you are a lucky dog and I hope to be the same sometime next March but only if Dan quits slackin’ :slight_smile:

Wow you actually believe that shipping date. As if its any different than past expectations. Oh its on my account page, it must be legit.

Screw this company. The really pulled it off didn’t they. Oh thanks again for the book you had time to write Dan.

The book was published before you knew about Glowforge. As for the shipping dates, Dan has said that they are estimates and subject to change based on production and shipping changes. It’s a prediction, which they’ve admitted. They’re trying to give us a better idea of an actual date instead of the vague schedules we’ve had up to this point. If my Glowforge arrives on the exact date shown on my account, I’ll be surprised. If it shows up later, I’ll be happy. If it shows up earlier, I’ll be unable to use it because I’d be dead from shock. I’m not going to get upset and threaten to cancel if it comes after the currently predicted date.

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Thinking that the difference is that the date is to be updated with manufacturing data and will change incrementally rather than wait three weeks before the deadline. Seems like it is an attempt to give folks what they have been asking for. Might not be accurate, and many will be upset if it’s off by 3 minutes or 3 months. But it’s a step. The alternative is to pick a fixed date 6-8 months in the future that the corner Psychic has chosen.

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