Discussion of the August 2017 update


#95

Yeah, this amounts to the semantic games/spin doctoring that many companies do. I was once with a company working on a major piece of software, with a promised ship date in December. They boxed up a blank tape and sent it, made a big press announcement for Wall Street, and had a party to celebrate the shipment. When the recipient said they couldn’t read the tape, they responded that there must have been an error cutting the tape, and they would resend after the holidays when people were back from vacation (thus giving themselves another month of development/testing time). Needless to say I didn’t stay with that company much longer. “Ship” means the actual finished product has left the factory on the way to it’s destination. No reasonable person would interpret sending an email as shipping a product.


#96

I’m hoping with everyone else for the best. In Dan’s own words:

Their intention is certainly to deliver (at least boxes on trucks, or boxes in houses at best) by that date. But from the definition of shipping that the company seems to be going by is shipped = initial email sent (consider reading the saga about the successful shipping of the first Pro by the end of June. He just received his unit recently).


#97

This is what I thought as well. I think defining “Shipped” or “Shipping” as having sent an email to customers asking if they want their glowforge sometime in the next 6 weeks is utterly ridiculous. Nevertheless, I think they are planning on getting the emails out by the specified deadline. That way they were all “shipped” in time.


#98

It is frustrating to see people that have listed their order dates after mine already receive shipping notice emails for their pro units.

I check my spam folder constantly so I am not sure what is up… and I have no way to know if an email was sent to me and I missed it or not.

B-/


#99

You can always email Support and ask.


#100

Not sure where you got your info on the company’s definition of “shipped”, as @dan seems to be refuting that in this reply.


#101

Mmm. True, I should try that although I have pretty non-existent expectations for support to reply to my email with how totally quiet glowforge seems about this topic in general. B-/

Sending email. Hopefully some sort of response will come sooner rather than three months from now.


#102

This has been discussed many times. I’m not finding an “official” statement, but you can put a number of things together that strongly support that shipping = initial acceptance letter.

For instance, GF promised that Pros would start shipping by the end of June. To the Forums knowledge there was only ONE email that went out before the end of June (June 30th), in this thread:

At the same time, GF declared successful delivery of the first Pro in June. The Pro customer just got his Pro right at the promised 6 week time period (I think to the very day).


#103

Great job! Getting so close! Excited for the Fall!!!


#104

Actually Dan did make an official statement that shipping equals email to them back when the first prod unit emails went out. His rationale was that’s what started their internal processes that result in a GF sitting in your house.

His latest clarification on the schedule was that they are doing everything they can to deliver by the end of October and November. It was both an extension of the schedule commitment from ship to deliver. But at the same time caveated it with the “doing our best” :slight_smile:


#105

still … not, here.


#106

That sounds like the initial release of the Oracle Database!


#107

Again, I’m prepared for whatever at this point. That said, I have no reason to believe there wont be another delay and every reason to believe there will be. It would be really nice if @dan would provide some metrics surrounding what percentage of the pre orders have already been shipped. That would at least calm some of the unrest. I don’t really mind delays. I was aware of the terms when I purchased. I get more upset about communications that are needlessly positive. For example, updates from last Fall leading up to some of the first delays. The updates were still consistently hopeful up until they weren’t. Surely everyone at Glowforge knew they were nowhere close to shipping at that point considering we are a year later and still on the fence about if they’ll make their timeline for 2017.

11/23/15 - It was delayed until the first half of 16
4/19/16 - it was delayed until 12/16
12/2/16 - it was delayed until 7/31/17
6/7/17 - it was delayed until 10/31/17

So, if I were a betting man, (and based on the lack of metrics being provided) I’d bet that somewhere in that 9/15ish update we will be learning that some of us wont be getting units until 3/31/18ish. Call me crazy, but I’m a big supporter of the idea that the best way to predict the future is to know the past. Please just provide some real metrics so that I know when to expect my unit rather than just when I should expect another delay.


#108

Actually, I was asking for a distinction between the observed “shipping” versus actually being delivered. Tom seems to be answering my question about whether we should just expect the observed shipping, by most people here on the forum, which as I detailed out, an email sent by Oct 31st, with delivery time several weeks after that or actually delivered and in our hands by Oct 31st. I’m sorry if that was not clear. Tom seems to have answered that they are working to have them delivered by that date, Oct 31st. With another observed delivery time since this question was asked of six weeks to Texas, see the delivery date of ProForgeOne to Texas I extrapolated that Sept 19th is the six week point to Oct 31st.


#109

I asked for confirmation on this point. Never got any.


#110

I apologize - what was the unanswered question?


#111

Long time lurker, but the tone of this discussion has struck a nerve and I feel I need to post. As a mid-October 2015 PRO pre-order I am on the edge of my seat with every update, I ordered about the time I knew my wife and I were having twins. I immediately started making plans for unique stuff for my boys, my wife, and parents and shared them with family. The Birth came and went, holidays, even first birthday and we are still waiting. Yea it sucks to wait. With the delays, I stopped even telling my wife about ideas because I get tired of the snide comments.

But I am also a business owner… (software/hardware company). I write code, I lead other coders, I work with lawyers, marketing people, etc… The single most difficult thing we face is predicting how long things will take, and forecasting development times.

Having been in the exact same place as @dan, its not easy to tell people the schedule has slipped. I never enjoy those meetings with clients, investors, media, etc… While I wish it was sooner, I completely understand the delays because Glowforge has been exceptionally open in their communication. More open and honest than their legal counsel probably likes (on a public website). Big and small problems have always been explained when the delay is announced, and that is a sign of a professional team. (FYI I am really glad they changed their manufacturing to the US, even if it cost a lot of time, it was a good decision.)

My team has decades of experience in our field, but still forecasting production is never perfect. For repeat projects, its sometimes easier to forecast as we have experience to call on, but even then systems change, regulations change and dates get pushed (our industry seems to be regulated by ego driven blowhards who don’t know much except how to write a press release).

If it was easy, someone would have already done it! - unknown

If the project is unique, its impossible to predict development. You just don’t know the things you don’t know, and could not have known until you get to that point in development. The only thing you really can count on is “whatever date you pick will be wrong”.

Glowforge is truly revolutionary, a consumer level device with “frikin laser beams” (/end Dr. evil voice) that can, burn, cut, slice stuff!!! I am sure Dan could spend a month listing all the things they wish they had known when they started.

People complain, “you had to know it was going to slip, why didn’t you tell us earlier”. Yea, I wish I knew earlier, I would not have said stuff to my family and made promises for holidays and birthdays. But learning that there is a problem, is not the same as knowing how long it will take to fix it. Glowforge was wise to wait until they had their head around a problem and could estimate how long the delay would be before talking publicly.

Foresight is never 20/20, hindsight always is. Even the best people make mistakes, forget things, make plans that don’t work. Professionals own up to them, take responsibility, and provide a plan of action to fix it. Glowforge always gave us an idea of the problem they faced, and how long they thought it would take to fix. They are professionals.

Yes, delays suck, but I have never lost confidence that I would get my machine, and that my money was put to good use, because at each step I knew why they made the decision to push the date. And because of these details on the delay I have never lost confidence that once I have my machine, its going to be quality (and worth the wait).

While some in the community are disappointed, frustrated, even angry; I understand, even sympathize (as I would guess many at GlowForge share similar feelings, they want to ship too). We all made plans for our Glowforge and cannot wait to get our hands on it. But lets take a moment and thank the Team at Glowforge, its been a long slog. Longer than anyone thought, with more trials and tribulations than anyone expected.

But now units are shipping, they are working, and they are getting better every day, and soon all of us will have our own box with “Frikin’ laser beams” on our desks/shops. This is a great accomplishment.

I may not have walked in their shoes, but I have walked down the same road. A hat tip to you, @dan and the rest of the Glowforge team. Through it all you have been professionals. Thank you.

PS - For your next product, what do you think of “sharks with frikin’ laser beams”, GlowShark, that would be really cool!


#112

I asked this question earlier in the thread. [quote=“mad_macs, post:81, topic:10347, full:true”]
Are we still on this schedule?

@dan “We’re working to have them all delivered by that date - although international customers have a higher chance of us missing our date.”

Oct 31 is All preorders; “Shipping” (Golden ticket email sent), “Shipping”(in the hands of the punishers aka UPS) or “Delivered”(in the hands of the owner)?
[/quote]


#113

Welcome to the forum @twineagles, very nicely explained. :grinning:

Congratulations on the birth of your boys! I imagine they are keeping you pretty busy. (There’s a thread on babies born during the hiatus here, if you want to show off a picture or two. Glowparents )


#114

Welcome, and great first post! A voice of reason rooted in experience.
It has been my observation across life that people tend to anger when they perceive a loss of control… As if we ever had that much. :wink:
I have been as disappointed as anyone over the projected evolution of this project, but assigning personal guilt over an inability to accurately predict the future is a symptom of the perceived loss of control - needing to find the cause and assign blame for it to justify our feelings.
Here on Earth we put that little piece of rubber on the end of a pencil for a good reason. :smirk:

Bingo.

Congratulations on your growing family!!