I wonder if my grandchildren will even own a car. Autonomous vehicles serving the need, elderly, disabled and children get where they need to go. No need for a garage, or square miles of parking lots where cars sit idle all day.
They will live in a different world, just as mine would be alien to my grandfather.
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i suspect there will always be enthusiasts and collectors of one stripe or another. but that future is probably going to be pretty close to what actually happens.
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Ummmā¦decades 
People are arguing theyāre going to be prevalent in a year or two and ubiquitous in 5 or 10. Theyāre discounting the technical and social hurdles and falling into the prediction trap that routinely rears its head rendering the predictions overly optimistic. We are woefully bad at prediction - overestimate what we know & underestimate what is new & totally off the radar.
Howās your flying car working?
And who knew in 2007 that smartphones (an $800 computer) would be in virtually everyoneās pocket in less than 10 years?
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Brutal is right. I live in a shipping town. A whole lot of my customers are truck drivers. Family men supporting parents, wives, and children, not to mention auxiliary businesses such as mine.
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I think maybe there would still need to be some truck drivers. Even if the truck can drive 99% of the trip automatically, it wonāt be able to, like, navigate a rough job site, with no roads and random trailers and equipment all over the place, and bring the materials to where it needs to go. It wonāt be able to load the truck and distribute the weight properly.
Or maybe every truck will need a driver anyway, and theyāll just be able to ādriveā overnight for days and days.
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So the deal is that unskilled labor can do the minding and press the buttons. Lower wages even if there still needs to be a person in the truck.
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I donāt mean this offensively at all, but isnāt truck driving already considered unskilled labour?
I assume the person overseeing the truck would definitely be paid less, for sure. Or maybe since they would be working while they sleep, technically, they could earn a comparable amount? It will be interesting to see what happens though.
Well, certainly there is considerable skill involved in truck driving, not to mention schooling for it, but I get what you mean. I think the salient issue is that it pays well compared to similarly skilled labor and we are likely to lose a substantial number of those highly paid positions.
I just tried to Google it, and it seems to be unskilled, midskilled, and skilled depending on the source, which is interesting. I didnāt mean to imply that it didnāt require any skill.
But I think youāre right. It likely pays much better than comparative jobs. It will make for a lot of future changes for sure.
But not all bad. Iām excited for, like, my parents to be able to be more independent for longer. My dad canāt drive any longer because of health reasons. Or maybe a licensed driver will need to be in the car, and nothing will really change.
Correct, those situations can occur. But how often DO they (currently) occur? And when one does happen, which will react sooner/better? The computer, or the human?
There are numerous ways to invent sensor arrangements for the autonomous vehicle which would allow it to have seen and prepared in each of those two cases anyway. If we step up autonomous vehicles to full smart-city level, then a camera on every street light means the car DID see the child on the other side of the parked car. Or even IR sensors on the curb could have provided advanced warning. Or a passive sensing/broadcasting from the parked (also smart) car which the child ran out in front of.
As for the person on the side of the street who is completely stationary, then suddenly bolts out, you can program your cars precisely for that case, and have them be cautious of any living being facing the street. The autonomous vehicle can keep an eye on that person/animal and react the instant motion begins, while the human driver would have to pay attention to everything else, and be subject to a reaction time after perceptible and perceived motion occurs.
At 35 mph, braking distance is 60 feet. At 20 mph it is 20 feet. An autonomous car can be programmed to slow from 35 down to 20 as it approaches a stationary potential risk, and then accelerate back to 35 after passing the risk. In total, the car would be running at a lower speed for about 2 seconds (20 mph is rough 30 feet per second, you only slow within the 60 foot range, and do not immediately slow to the 20 mph point). A 20 mph impact on a human is roughly equivalent to falling off a single story roof, likely to cause damage, but unlikely to be lethal. And there would still be SOME braking distance available within that 20 foot range, so the car is unlikely to be at the full 20 mph at the time of collision.
Decades is not much time, on my personal societal change radar, which is woefully uncalibrated 
But universal adoption within 10 years would be a simple matter of legislation. Singapore and other countries make it prohibitively expensive to certify a vehicle over 5 years old as emissions compliant. As a result, people just buy new cars every 5 years, or go on lease plans which automatically swap their car out every year or two (the few who own cars that is, since they cost about the same as a condo for a family of 5).
With climate change concerns, if they ever got through to law makers in the states, similar legislation would be feasible in the states (Pretty sure California is already approaching that point, but based on random article headlines and not actual research). If we hit a point where you have to pay 1/3 the price of a new car to certify your old one as road safe, and where new car models cannot obtain maximum safety scores without autonomous travel availabilityā¦ then you have instant adoption nationwide.
Of course, both of those changes hinge on massive legislation/certification shifts which would be lobbied against by special interest groups of various sorts. So yes, this is an outside of actual reality prediction.
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Wow! I so didnāt expect a Tesla thread alongside a Glowforge! I ordered the Glowforge Pro with Filter on the initial ordering ā¦ and ordered a Tesla Model 3 on the first day.
My son owns a Model S (anyone need a referral code? itās for $1K off a new Model S or Model X plus unlimited Supercharging as long as you own the car).
I am purchasing the Model 3 because I (yes, the mom) just graduated last summer from college so itās more in my budget as a contractor. I am still trying to break into the InfoSec field and the 3 companies I most want to work for have hiring freezes due to different reasons. Meanwhile I keep learning where I am (which is one of those companies) and will have gained knowledge that will help in that position.
I canāt wait to get my Model 3ā¦it will be smaller than the Model S (which I am used to compact cars). I am looking forward to getting the Glowforge and making customized tweaks to my car!
My son has the Autopilot 1 version in his carā¦and I tell you what a difference it makes ā¦ especially in rain! We picked it up in Texas and drove it homeā¦put in the home address and it picked the Super Chargers that we needed to stop at on the wayā¦and it estimated how long we needed to stop at one to get to the next ā¦no brain power needed ā¦ and the app is super sweetā¦we stopped in an Applebees and the app loaded by the time we reached our seat (which as just minutes). It showed him a continual update so he would know when we had stayed long enoughā¦well we ate dinner and that shortened the next charging timeā¦sweet!
We went through a rain storm that was just so heavy I had troubles seeing the lines at timeā¦it displayed what the cameras could āseeā and only notified my son a couple of times that he needed to take complete control. My son said he wasnāt tired like he would have been with his Lexus, because the car took away all the stress/fatigue in the shoulders and back from gripping the wheel tighterā¦it just handled great! ā¦and itās had updates since which my son has said it helps even more!!
Just my 2 centsā¦canāt wait for both my Glowforge and my Model 3!!!
P.S. PM me if you want a referral codeā¦(wish it was available for Model 3, but itās not).
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Iāll be honest. Iām not sure how I got to where we are in this discussion.
In my opinion everything you suggest would be astronomically expensive, and would rely on every piece of hardware and software involved to be standardized, and that wonāt happen.
That said, Iām all for autonomous vehicles. I want a Tesla today. I canāt afford itā¦ but I want one, and you better believe that Iād be using the autopilot now, and that Iād use the full autonomous drive the second it was activatedā¦ ok, the day it was activatedā¦ maybe Iād be at work the exact second it was activated.
As for the kid in the street scenario, it doesnāt matter how many sensors there are, it will happen because even if the system is foolproof, a sensor will break. And I agree with you, by the numbers, the autonomous vehicle wins.
Try explaining that to a mom who just lost her son. It wonāt matter that the kid is entirely to blame for jumping in front of a moving car. It wonāt matter that the parents werenāt watching their kid. It will come down to the evil auto manufacturer (who happens to have a lot of cash) who murdered their son. And they have to pay for that crime (monetarily of course).
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I think people will give up on them based on the lack of need for the cost, if you can summon a car to you in minutes and have it drive you where you need to go and not think about itā¦ why own a car and all the hassle that comes with.
I think some people genuinely enjoy driving and or attach some degree of ego to their car, so they will likely still exist in a much small market with crazy insurance costs.
For me personally, one of the absolute biggest reasons I bought a tesla was this was one of their main goals to finally advance the car industry.
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If I can have that assurance EVERYWHERE I go (big city and rural backroads), and start a habit of summoning the autonomous car so that it is literally waiting for me at the curb, or can keep a car for a duration of a visit, I might consider it. But right now, the knowledge of having my car always where I left it (barring it being stolen of course), so that I can go out of my house, immediately get in my car and have the option of driving a few minutes to the store, or a few (or many) hours to visit family in another state is immense to me. I donāt like to carpool in other peopleās cars because I feel like Iām trapped to their schedule, and I donāt have the freedom to go anywhere if the need should arise.
I will definitely be one of those who would be dragged kicking and screaming into giving up my car. Not because of ego of what kind of car I drive, but because I do really enjoy driving, and I love the flexibility that it affords me. I donāt have to pay someone else exorbitant fees to drive distances (20 in a taxi to be taken 5 blocks in DC), and not be able to afford to go hours away (Hundreds of in train and airfare cost vs <$100 in gas to drive there).
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Well itās interesting because here in San diego, lyft and uber make this possible now, its just the cost of the driver still puts the overall price too high. Also, weāve got prime now here, which lets me order groceries as well as a ton of amazon stuff and have it delivered for free to my house within 2 hours. The result is that I donāt need to go to the store anymore, they come to me. I havenāt been in a physical store in almost a year at this point.
Living in the boonies will lag you behind, as my parents in MA certainly donāt have access to what I do. But in a major city, Iām bordering on not needing a car right now. Driverless ubers should make my work commute cheaper than a car. 
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I do put quite a few miles on my car every year, about 25,000. I live just outside DC, but my commute alone is 11 miles away. The cost for Uber or Lyft to take me there one way cheapest is about $22 one way, $44 round trip. My car payment was about $300/mo before I paid it off, so about $10/day, and I got gas every 1.5 weeks at $20 per tank. So my daily costs were about $12 at itās highest. So that alone will necessitate me to have a car for the foreseeable future.
All that being said, Iām all for the continuance of autonomous cars. It actually sounds really neat that you are able to do all of that without a car. Itās just not for me, at least, not yet.
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i canāt give a car up yet either, but i will point out that your calculation doesnāt include maintenance, insurance, oil, tires. there are other costs to owning a car.
besides it often wins out on freedom alone; an uber to work is great, but that doesnāt include going out on weekends, renting a car for a trip, etc.
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Yep thatās the case for most of the analyses Iāve seen (and even adding in maintenance, insurance, etc wouldnāt grow the $12/day into $45 or $50). I couldnāt even take the bus to work for less than my car and Iād be giving up a lot of schedule freedom.
I never buy cars new, always late model high quality ones where someone has taken a deep hit on depreciation but then I can get 100 or 150K on them before I turn them over to my kids. (My youngest son is driving my Mercedes with nearly a quarter million miles on it - after we put 170K.) My per mile cost is pretty low. (It also helps we do our own maintenance so Iām not paying inflated Mercedes or Lexus labor rates.)
A pickup truck on the other hand is something I rent - I canāt justify the expense for the amount of time Iād use it (mostly because when my daughter is away at college weāve got 2 extra cars in the driveway). I rent those the couple of times a year I need one.
Very valid point. Iām going to make some guesses for normal cars and their expenses.
Oil changes - 1 every 2 months for about $20 per oil change. ($120 per year)
Maintenance - according to google about $1700 per year
Insurance - about $1800 per year
$.32 per day for oil changes
$4.65 per day for maintenance
$4.93 per day for insurance
plus my guess of about $12 per day from above, and Iām at about $22 (rounding up). About the cost of a single Uber ride for me.
@jrnelson, You also have a fantastic point about the cost of freedom and availability. If I need to āpick something up on the way homeā I can do that with my own car, I canāt economically do that in a service. Freedom is priceless.
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ooo What is a good place or good way to rent the use of a Pickup? Iām quite interested in that. I will be getting a couch soon and was looking into a U-haul just to bring it home. Either that or a Home Depot Pickup, and I know there has got to be a better way.