Shipping Status Bar Hasn't Changed


#1

Hello my fellow glowforgers. I haven’t received my glowforge yet, so you can say I’m getting really excited waiting for my email to arrive. But to me it seems like the shipping status at the top in the blue box hasn’t change in a while from day 9 to day 10. I hope there’s not going to be another delay. Can someone give me some insight to what may be happening?


Shipping Status Still Hasn't Changed?
#2

The banner updated about a week ago to what you see now but this week there haven’t been many new emails or dispatches so they still seem to be on those same two days.

The rate of emails has never been high enough to meet the schedule, so we expected it to ramp up but it has tailed off instead. So it doesn’t look hopeful and I expect another delay.


#3

I don’t seem to have this status bar. How to enable it?


#4

Unfortunately, once you turn it off, you can’t turn it back on. It takes a group reset by @dan .

(You can sign out of the forum and then it will display at the top of each page again.)


#5

Hypothetically, if Day 9 orders were abnormally large (say, some website brought a lot of new interest to the campaign), the schedule is on time given the larger number of orders for that day. You just do not have hourly-level accuracy to know what portion of the day they are currently at.


#6

There’s no reason to think that banner is representative of reality, it’s probably best to check “the spreadsheet” to find the latest shipping progress.


#7

If you look at the graph of orders in the sheet the first day is big and the last five. Day 9 and 10 are small. The basics were progressing rapidly after they cleared day one but now there is lull in both emails and dispatches. Perhaps they are about to start mass production. They need a big step up to meet the schedule now.


#8

I don’t regard ‘the sheet’ as any noteworthy value in determining the number of orders.
You may be one who puts great faith in it towards confirmation of theories, but I do not.


#9

Well so far it has been very accurate. It has stalled and the banner has stalled. Few people are mentioning getting emails this week.

Even if gf are shipping thousands of units to invisible people they still need to clear the spreadsheet and they currently aren’t.


#10

Okay… so… why are you trying to convince me? You’re not going to.


#11

and international orders? I think we will be the last in everything :frowning:


#12

Last word from Dan was “soon” .


#13

Perhaps not, but there’s no doubt that it’s been sitting on Day 9 for quite some time. Why do you want so badly to believe they’re on schedule? I noticed you held this point of view the day before the last big slip. Does having somebody out there believing that there will be another delay somehow make it more likely you’ll experience a delay getting your unit?


#14

So far, skeptics who believe that have concluded that there will be a slip have been more correct more often than optimists who insist that people are lying on the spreadsheet or that lack of information is definitely evidence that everything is fine.


#15

Past performance is not indicative of future results. :wink:

Interesting fact of the day: Over 90% of top-performing (top-quartile) mutual funds at any given time will not be in the top-quartile two years later; and only .3% after 5 years.

Continue on.


#16

I didn’t say anything referring to them being on schedule. You and @palmercr are trying to convince me that they’re behind schedule based on information I put no accurate value in, information that has no statistical merit. So far all people provide is some belief that it has a statistical basis, but I’ll believe that when an actual statistician weighs in. Until then, it’s wild speculation.

That’s because there’s no better information to change my point of view. Call it basis on fact if you like, but you lack facts until you can show me a statistician that shows me the spreadsheet is worthy of merit. The burden of proof towards making me believe in it is to prove theory is fact.

In other words, to paraphrase, a lack of information is not evidence of fact.
http://wiki.c2.com/?AbsenceOfEvidenceIsNotEvidenceOfAbsence


#17

Obviously I think your optimism in both Glowforge and “expert” or “professional” statisticians (to me, they’re just people who know some math) are unfounded. And I think some healthy skepticism at this point can save people a bunch of heartache. It was heartbreaking to hear how much hopes and dreams people invested in Glowforge’s schedule. They’re still working on a v1 product and it’s pretty clear they aren’t out of the woods yet.

And I’m likely to put more stock in @palmercr, a person whose contributions to the 3D printing community and experience in engineering and designing hardware that I have some knowledge of, even if it is based off of the little information we’re able to glean from Glowforge and it’s customers.

And no, I’m not trying to convince you of anything, but perhaps another over optimistic reader will temper their expectations and not plan on making Christmas presents unless they already have a laser cutter in their hands.

I’m still excited to get my Glowforge and I’m totally in for “cosmetic defects” so I’d rather have mine now than later. So I’m one of those that can totally see how people are impatiently waiting, skeptical about Glowforge communication and yet still don’t want to cancel.


#18

Hey, it’s the Internet. People are entitled to their opinions.

I stated mine, @palmercr stated his.
I stated why I had my opinion, he tried to justify his opinion without backing it with further evidence.
I remained unconvinced.

In regards to their latest October timeline:
Are they on time? Unknown.
Are the ahead of schedule? Unknown.
Are they behind schedule? Unknown.

Hey, more power to you. But now you’ve known my viewpoint for several messages, and you’re obviously feeling compelled to explain yours to me, but you’re unlikely to change my viewpoint without further evidence.

So… thanks, but I’m not interested in an argument. I’m just saying I don’t come to the same conclusions. I applaud your faith in failure.


#19

Also for other readers: obviously I believe Glowforge will succeed in shipping me a laser cutter just not on the timeline they were hoping. If I didn’t, I would cancel because in the event of full company failure there is risk of financial loss (even with their promise to spend investor money first).


#20

For clarity: I was referring to the failure to keep a schedule, not failure to produce an awesome product.