It is not simply holding off bad news. Saying the orders still would be shipped by August at BAMF was a lie. That was never going to be the case when shipping didn’t start until June.
We currently see all orders projected to end at the end of Nov starting June. So about 6 months. To finish in August it would need to start February, which surprise surprise was when they said hundreds would go out and through March and then thousands staring in April. None of that happened so they were already more than three months behind when they went to BAMF. They were saying they could make all the orders in three months. As soon as the first machines landed they changed the timescale by three months.
It comes down to intent. I don’t think they have an intent to deceive. You do. My world view is that most people in the business of building things to sell to people are honestly trying to build those things and make the best guesses they possibly can.
Dan hasn’t made one of these before. Back in 2015 when he was starting to plan this out I don’t think he thought he’d sell 10,000 pre-orders in the first month. I don’t think anyone did.
I think he was probably naive about how long it takes to make hardware in scale. It seems so easy because we see it happen all the time - just look at day 1 orders for any new Apple or Samsung release and then they ship. Not knowing all that went into that seems to suggest the elven factories have some secret sauce that makes manufacturing ramp up pretty easy.
On the software side I don’t think I’ve ever seen a good software engineer who was not an optimist. Part of it is due to differences in what people understand a request to mean and part is due to an engineer’s innate confidence that all problems are solvable. I deal with it every single day. And I make decisions similar to what Dan seems to be making every day. That’s why I don’t criticize his anymore - I realized I’m finding it necessary to do things I have previously suggested he should be doing differently
While it appears from your comments that you can’t see lack of intent and ascribe their actions to anything like exuberant optimism, choosing deliberate deception instead (and yeah I expect you can/will argue that if not intentional then it’s a sign of incompetence, but save the electrons because I’ve seen zero proof you can do what they are doing so your assessment of competence has no value for me). What I can’t understand is why you continue to associate yourself with people you believe are either dishonest, incompetent or possibly idiots because they don’t see the same things in black & white crystal clarity as you do.
I believe in Dan and his team because I don’t think he’s stupid and it would be stupid to deceive and because I’ve seen demonstrable proof they’re delivering on their promises. That tells me they’re likely to deliver on everything possible and that those posing counter arguments are simply not credible.
Im aware there may be push back. I was simply replying to your statement that negative comments deters new posters by pointing out that push back does as well.
To me, this is like saying “But people always lie… so its not really a lie”. People buy into a product based on the info you give. If that info is blatantly inaccurate, its dishonest.
You are free to think that. I am free to believe it was dishonesty. Telling forum people a couple of days before a 6 month delay that there is no change in schedule and promoting a product at conventions under that same schedule, only to turn around and delay it 6 months (even more now) IS dishonest. I do not believe that they didn’t know the delay was coming. You can disagree but that doesn’t change my assessment of the situation.
Maybe, but some requests in the past simply required a person to sit a computer for a few moments to address concerns. Or simply take a picture. The response was that this request would take someone away from getting the glowforge ready. But there was never a shortage of people at these conventions selling more units.
Again… this is dishonest. You can say that its an industry standard tactic, but all that means is that the industry standard is dishonest.
Really? Putting up a web order saying deliveries in three months when all they had was a prototype? It simply isn’t possible to ramp up to volume production in three months unless you have a finished product. A) because you would need to place orders straight away as many things are on 12 weeks standard lead times. B) because you need a finished product to get the safety and EMC approvals and they are likely to take months.
I don’t believe anybody in the company could think that timescale was possible. And I don’t think Dan is stupid, so I am sure he must have known. I don’t know if the investors were on board at that point but if they were they would have done due diligence and I sure they would have known.
In fact why did the investors put in many millions of pounds? If the timescale was realistic they would only need three months of funding and then the pre-order money kick starts the cash flow and the company would have been up and running.
@palmercr obviously disagrees. And he is going to continue. The faster everyone gets to that realization- the better. This thread does need to be this long and negative about it. Just shake hands and carry on.
You’re right. Too many life minutes wasted on it already.
In the words of Spiro Agnew, I just need to disregard the “nattering nabobs of negativity” and carry on
I still feel bad for Dan & crew for having to put up with the name calling and innuendo. I’m definitely buying him a pint when I see him (hopefully NY MakerFaire!)
I really appreciate this response. We are labeling the same behaviors with different words. I agree with you wholeheartedly about what crucial points are up for discussion: marketing, accuracy, development strategy, communication. I have learned a lot from your posts and your communication style. I certainly understand that you aren’t here to subvert the common goal. And you are a passionate advocate about your own needs and expectations.
As someone who probably tends in the Cheerleader end of the spectrum, I still agree that all voices should be heard. I like to think hearing the negatives helps look at things clearer. Thumbs up.
For what it’s worth, I haven’t found this forum to suffer very much from the passive aggressive “use the search” responses that are so prevalent in many forums. In fact, I had some very patient folks go out of their way to provide advice that they had already given in other posts when I hit snags in my own projects.
This is one of the friendliest forums I have ever been a part of, and I’ve been in lots of them for 20+ years.
This is an interesting point.
I often get engaged to provide advice when Australians want to negotiate business deals with the Japanese - why is that? Because when i speak Japanese i become a different person, my mannerisms change as much as the tone of language does (apart from the obvious speaking in Japanese thing). This is not something you can teach someone, it comes from being immersed in the culture and seeing it from their POV.
When i was in the USA i found that i would make jokes or statements that were obviously hilarious or witty (completely objective here - lol) but only my English compatriot understood it the way i did. My American friends were often a bit confused by it all. The same as when the Englishman and I would have a go at each other… we did this for a laugh, it is part of our culture but occasionally a concerned Seattlite would ask why we did not like each other!
@palmercr is a pom, he is used to a more confrontational style of getting to an answer. He is also used to dishing it out and taking it in equal measure. What, to the average American, would seem overly aggressive is just a problem solving technique to the poms.
As an Aussie i have to constantly remind myself that when dealing with Internationals i have to limit my swear words to less than one a sentence and to not be too direct. When i go into ‘Japanese-mode’ i don’t even need that reminder… i am a different person.
On a forum like this, with some highly intelligent problem solvers, incredible creatives and a melange of cultures there is always going to be a disconnect in each of us trying to express questions, complaints or support. On the other hand it also gives us a chance to learn new modes of communication.
It’s company policy that every new hire comes to a show so they can meet you, the customers who make that all possible. So you see accounting, engineering, admin, and then Bailey and I bringing up the rear.
Apologies. I did not mean to imply that.
I meant to shout it! We’re hiring! We need more great people!
We can’t do half the awesome things we’d love to because we are running too lean for our stated workload.
I do need to correct this: we do not go to tradeshows to sell Glowforge units. We don’t train employees to do that (quite the opposite: we train them to ask people about what they’re going to do with their Glowforge, because that’s what they’re there to learn about). We don’t approach customers about buying. We have a little postcard with a URL on it if they ask us where they can get one. As a result, we spend roughly 4x as much attending a tradeshow as the incremental sales we generate. (Related: it’s why we only attend 3 shows a year, and one of them is in Seattle!). But we don’t care, because we’re there for two reasons only:
So that our team can meet you, the people who make it possible, and get to know you, and
So our amazing customers can see what they ordered in person.
Perhaps I’m mistaken. I’m just trying to go off the info available in the forum. I will say, however, that the general perception is that it is for sales. One forum member even posted here and said that the booth worker was really keen to talk to them until they realized the person was already a buyer and then wanted nothing more to do with them. The perception by them and some in the thread was that the interest was gone becaise the sale was. Regardless, if im wrong, I’m wrong.
this is the perfect gif thank you
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