From what I’ve seen on the forum, I think a lot of folks with basics got pushed out a few weeks.
And his clearing up well after the fact holds as much water for some as all the previous missed (and likely future) shipping dates.
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True. As with most conspiracy theories, no amount of information will change the theorists minds.
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Heard there was a grassy knoll on the lunar lander set.
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I don’t know if you can really call it a conspiracy when we now have the benefit of hindsight. The marketing material was clearly false. They certainly weren’t ready to ship a finished product starting in December 2015. They still don’t have the software or the air filter finished. I don’t get the controversy. Dead horse? Yes, I do get that!
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The conspiracy discussion is attributing the delays to malice, aforethought, and trying to use a blog post as “evidence” of said conspiracy.
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23rd to the 30th and now tomorrow…holy Willy Wonka 
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Everyone is entitled to their own view… Given the extended delays, lack of a full software feature set and international availability I think the view that GF set out to deliberately misled everyone to gain a high level of pre-orders is spot on. Given Dan’s track record in misleading statements, I think it’s not unreasonable for him to just discount that old article. But as many has said, it just a dead horse…
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Now that I have my shipping notice, how does the $20/month delay credit show up? By my calcs, since they were supposed to ship in December 2016, we are now 9 or 10 (depending on definition) months late. That should equate to $180 or $200 credit. If my account I show the $50 design catalog credit and a $40. “Unspecified credit”.
Or, I am I WAY off base…
As of today it is $180 from Dec 2016. But only to people that ordered before a certain date. Can’t order today and get the credit.
Two days ago, my estimated ship date was Feb 22.
Yesterday, my estimated date for a Pro was Dec 29. Today, it is Dec 28. Moving in the right direction for me!
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For what it is worth.
My Basic to Sydney, Australia moved from 27th March to 1st of March
26 days forward
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I didn’t look before, but I would not be surprised if the credit shows up when they process your acceptance of your Glowforge, or maybe around the same time as the starter proofgrade package goes out…there seems to be a fair amount of manual processing going on, but that’s just my supposition.
This post is total nonsense. It reminds me of a time in the last century when computers were new to most people. I’d call a company to request a change in the monthly due date of my bill and the company person would tell me that the “computer won’t let me do it.” I’d be waiting on the phone for a response to a question and the excuse to the length of the wait was usually “the computer is really slow this morning.” The computer became a very convenient excuse. In this post, Dan, you have changed Computer’s name to " underlying model." Also, I think “we made a bunch of improvements” should read “we fixed a bunch of mistakes.”
How difficult could this process be? Let’s say you make 10 machines a week and you have 100 customers waiting for them. Customer # 50 would receive theirs in 5 weeks, customer # 100 in 10 weeks. I could refine this “model” to forecast the exact day for shipping, but I think you get the idea.
I just wish I knew the whole truth about what you are doing. I hope someone is planning to write a book (article, blog) about this experience so we can understand the real story.
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Yes same here. Been waiting 2 years 6 days . They gave me a Oct 30th ship date but still no e-mail
Le sigh… I regret having added to the negativity of the universe and have deleted my semi snarky comment. I think how I really feel is I hope we all can look back on this experience and laugh… because we are having so much fun making stuff and sharing our experiences.
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Oct 30th is by when you get your DO YOU WANT YOUR GLOWFORGE email.
How about modeling a ramping (not static) factory output? This week you’ll build 20, next week 25, the week after 35, the fourth week 50. Model in a 1% QA failure rate and returns due to various factors of another 1.5%. Then add in swapping between Pros and Basics on the line. Oh, account for week three going to 30 because of a delayed shipment of parts or boxes or whatever. Don’t forget to model in a ramp-down towards the end for a move to steady state run rate. You’d only need to model that for 26 weeks or so from what we can see now.
Now do that for 10,000 units. And variable (and unknown) timeframes for certification approvals for different countries affecting differing numbers of customers. And then add in a factor that accounts for some customers delaying their approval to ship or deferring shipment to a future time.
Seems easy-peasy. Pretty sure if you could build this model as you say that GF would be thrilled to use it. I know you don’t have their factory production numbers but if you set the model up using variables GF can plug in the real numbers. You’ll need to do that anyway to pick up changes in actual production & fail rates vs the initial model numbers.
Let us know when you’re done so we can look for GF’s projections to improve. When do you think you’ll be ready with it? Glad you’re on this. Thanks for helping all of us waiting for our units. 
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Just keep it with the frequent updates. The only reason people are losing their minds of the October update was because they had no idea as to when their GF was going to show up. Now at least I know when things change.
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For the record: I never posted screen captures of the article. I merely commented on someone else’s posting of said screenshots. If there was a screen shot in my posting then it was part of a direct quote. Please keep your facts straight.
Don’t take my word for it, see the original post #786 from @natesland on Oct 16. This post contained the screenshot.
You should remember that because you added a reply to the thread twice. Once to natesland and once to me. See also:
On a side note, you have previously flagged comments on this forum as non-factual and been proven wrong. To me you are starting to sound either misinformed, fuzzy on the details, or just outright trolling people.
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