True but there has been very little progress this week so nothing changes. Still on those two days.
Based on what? The lack of posts saying somebody got their golden email? Sorry, I donât hold nearly as much value to that as you seem to. Not even going to get into that discussion.
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Both that and the spreadsheet. Emails and dispatch es have dried up to trickle like they did in July.
Dan,
Congrats to see that things move forward. I had times where I came close to give up on your Project. Which is a dream come true to many of us.
Now that things really happen and orders are shipping and all of us can see real machines in real customers I do not fear I just threw my maney to the bin (as it happened to me in the past).
I would like to have in our Purchase history a delivery Schedule. I mean I bought it in December 2015, what does this mean in terms of delivery?. Nov 2017 or Nov 2018?.
Hope you understand.
If you purchased in December 2015, they are going to try to get the units shipped out to you by the end of November 2017. (Not November 2018.)
That is assuming that nothing goes wrong to delay them further, and it is only a target date, not a promise. If you are international, it might take a bit longer than that to actually receive the units, but they are trying.
It shouldnât be much longer than that in any case. They are shipping out units now. At this point, the only thing they have to do is let manufacturing catch up to the demand. 
Almost there.
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I agree, it looks like theyâve paused. My completely unfounded speculation is that theyâre investigating another fix before ramping up again.
If theyâre following the FTC rule on internet orders and accepting the email converts a pre-orders into an order then, if I understand it correctly, they really want to hit the six week date or they have to ask for acceptance again with a reasonable explanation for the delay and no response means refund.
So whenever they slow production or see reasons why they might, theyâve got to slow up sending out emails so that they donât over commit.
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Yes, they said it would be updated weekly, and either has not, or there has been zero progress.
Basic units started shipping in June, and Pro units started getting notification on June 30. In two and a half months, theyâve gotten 9 days in on Basic and are still working on day one for Pro. At that rate, Glowforge will not only miss their current shipping deadline but not get the initial campaign orders out until 2018 or later. Either there is a serious lack of transparency or a serious lack of honesty, or both. Which is it, @dan ?
Or a surfeit of conjecture?
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There has been a lack of progress this week. Only two new emails on the spreadsheet and another announced in the forum. So âshippingâ is still on the same days and the banner is still up to date.
This is my belief.
A few weeks ago Dan discussed modelling of malfunctioning units and said it would not surprise him to see some recipient(s) getting up to 3 malfunctioning units in a row.
If this is true then this is in no way acceptable for Glowforge; economically or as a Brand. (Let alone for Purchasers)
Whether the main issue was Manufacturing or Delivery he was not clear (I mean it is Dan we are talking about, though to be honest i am surprised he said this much).
I assume the recent slowdown is related to these issues.
As disappointed as i am with very many parts of this 2+ year process i genuinely feel they are dealing with issues here that are out of their direct control.
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I know Iâm asking for wild speculation here, but anyone have any idea if itâs even possible for them to ramp up production to the point where they complete preorders by the end of october, assuming they get all the issues sorted fairly quickly? I know no one knows for certain or has many details, but just like generally.
Should those of more towards the end of the campaign thinger just be preparing ourselves for some more disappointing, last minute news?
Thatâs the one.
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I think itâs possible, just not very probable that all pre-orders will be in peopleâs hands by Oct. 31 given the little info we have now (keep in mind that this post is a surfeit of conjecture). Keep in mind that âin your hands by Oct 31â is more of a hope than is stated in the official schedule.
In your hands by December 15 would still technically meet the current published schedule without any announcement about a delay. Though not without more threads on âprocessingâ, " shipping", and âdeliveringâ.
For example, another surfeit of conjecture would be that Day 9 of Basics contained a large single order from one say corporate buyer that doesnât participate on the forums that breaks the assumption that the big order days are the first few and last few. Or the day 1 pro order count is even higher than we think and the shift from basic to pro is very high at the moment. In either case (or others) if the number of units dispatched (delivered to shippers) each day continues to increase and this pause on Day 9 and 1 is an illusion of a pause, then it could all still turn out well.
Iâd just advise against betting (emotionally or financially) very heavily on that.
Hardware and shipping packaging are difficult to diagnose, tweak and/or fix on the run and our Glowforges are big and heavy and this is still very much a v1 (almost v1?)
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There was an order timeline graph constructed from order numbers but I canât find it now. Anyway from memory that didnât have a big jump at day 9, so I donât think there was a secret buyer of lots of units.
The slow down in emails also seems to correspond in a slowdown of dispatches to people who have emails and the time people are waiting has gone up from about 2 to 4 weeks. So everything points to a pause in output instead of a ramp up.
Dispatches do seem to have picked up again in the last few days so perhaps next week will be better.
The maximum email rate we have seen on the spreadsheet has only been about 2 per day. At that rate it will take another five months to send all the emails out to clear the sheet. We need so see an avalanche of emails if they are to make the schedule, about 30 per week.
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Far be it from me to jump in on this surfeit of conjecture⌠
Perhaps there was some sort of engineering change that was in the works to fix many of the early production issues. It took time to get these changes ready for production.
They could have halted all production, and let community erupt into yet more speculation and hysteria. Or, they could continue building them as they were and give the customer a choice: take an early unit that wonât be perfect, but will function fine - or - wait until we get the issues worked out. (This last part sound familiar, no?)
Their view may have been that it is better to trickle out some units, even with minor cosmetic defects, than to deliver nothing. Customers seeing that units are actually shipping will be less likely to cancel.
Maybe, just maybe, they are in the midst of implementing that production change. Hence, the lull in notices/shipments.
We donât know the true capacity of Flex, but, assuming their suppliers have the bandwidth, there is no reason to not believe that they could be on the edge of a major ramp up in production that would allow them to hit their target dates - with a major improvement in quality.
Had to get that in while I still have free time. My Glowforge (with all itâs early cosmetic defects) will be here Wednesday, That will likely slow my conjecture roll.
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I think the safe thing to do is NOT plan on making Christmas gifts on your glowforge this year. That will be a sad thread around the beginning of December with all of us lamenting on the things we were planning to make.
Iâm still optimistic, and Iâm a December 3.
But personally Iâm expecting next year. This way I will be extra excited when I get my Glowforge this year.
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Not even going to comment on this.
editâŚ
This GIF sort-of worksâŚ
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There always the obvious conjecture â we know how long it took to moving from day 1 to day 2 (a long time), we know the orders were half and half. The obvious conclusion is that the production lines were switched to fully producing pro models to clear that backlog for a while.
Whatâs up with the shipping day status being on day 9 for well over a week?
Not seeing any activity in the gdoc either for last week⌠maybe there is a hold up or issue?
Iâm not complaining⌠as I said I wouldnât⌠just curious as I bought mine on day 10 and thought Iâd get my email last week.
Just seems odd that theyâre still on day 9 still.
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