You can check for other physical causes by making sure that the tray is seated down firmly in the dimples in the bottom of the machine (raise the lid, drop down the front panel and slide the tray back and forth a couple of times to make sure the feet are in the dimples), and another thing that you’ll need to check for is the warp on the material.
From the actual cutouts and the shadows that they are throwing when the cuts dropped down in your pictures…that material looks like there is some serious warp in it. As little as a mm can make a really big difference in placement, so make sure the material is perfectly flat on the tray. These honeycomb pins are a great item to have in your arsenal, or some people use strong magnets to hold down the material flat.
That black arc at the bottom of your second screenshot looks odd, but it doesn’t hurt to check those other things out as well while you are waiting to hear from support.