New Years Update (Jan '17)


#82

Very cool. Problem to print in 30 minutes will be a challenge for those of us not accustomed to design - but what an exciting way to learn!


#83

As @Dan said this can cause more problems than it solves.
For example:

  • What if GF ship in batches (100 to USA, 50 to EU, 50 to Asia for example). In a case like this people higher on the list in specific countries will receive theirs later than lower order - this will lead to recrimination and angst
  • What if some countries are easier (legally/safety/security-wise) to ship to than others? This will lead to confusion as people in other countries watch them get theirs first.

IMHO with supported projects Shipping-time is one of the most tense periods of the whole wait. After patiently waiting (lol jk) 15 months for something that last 15 days can turn into torture.


#84

Hi BDM,
See that’s the point, why would they ship that way unless the orders came in that way, if they are shipping to there best buddies or for some other reasons, that’s a little disappointing. The people who read the information and decided to risk sending in the monies first should be the one t get the units first after all they are the first one to take a leap of faith to put down a good bit of money to get the GF.
And I don’t care what anyone says, this is NOT crowd funding. The is a pre-purchase crowd funding is specifically for a reward but ultimately what you are doing is pledging monies for a possibility of getting an item it is not guaranteed. Here they are selling a laser cutter and have taken preorders, this kind of thing didn’t work well for Tucker and Tesla is have troubles as well… Calling it a crowd funding campaign gets around some of the legal stuff and so does holding the preorder monies so they can be refunded. What you don’t here is what happens to the interest on the 50 million they have stored.
I really don’t care about any of it, its business and thats how things get done in the real world, Dan and company have done a good job regarding the information, but I also think his comments are little bit of a copout. He could tell us the information regarding the number of units purchased each day during the “campaign” but that would give us enough information to know when something seems a little off regarding units being shipped.
If they decide to batch ship to countries I think they should say that they are planing to do just that most people here on the forum are patient…
What worries me is that there are more problems than they are letting on about and the manufacturing rate projections tell use that the last units will be delivered in 2030. I know I know its a little pessimistic but every time I see an update it always seems just shy of give me the warm and fuzzies, and I don’t know why but I never get info for the online Q&A sessions. oh well it’s just frustrating maybe I should be on the forums more, but I just don’t have the time… wish I did…
Regards,
David


#85

I don’t do Shipping, in the Companies in which i have worked they have specialists to look after shipping because it requires specialists to do right. I am telling you what i have seen in other projects i have funded and from the side-lines in my own experience

For a new product, and especially a laser and even more especially with the weight and knock-control the package requires shipping these out is not as easy as calling a courier company and paying a bill.

In my experience they will do this in groups and by region.
I might not like it… i am in Australia and i can 101% guarantee i will get mine shipped AFTER a comparable orderer from the USA… but i understand the logic behind it if they do it this way.

For the record i have never called this ‘crowd-funded’ in fact quite the opposite i have often pointed out that it is clearly not crowd-funded.

But whether it is DVDs, Tesla Powerwalls (which Australia received earlier than most!) or Glowforge’s it makes sense to region-ship by batch


#86

HI Dan,
Not really looking for a precise date… I am just looking for a window even one several months wide would at least tell me two things.
One the units are shipping and two some ball park time frame. If I knew that I would be much happier. I know it would put pressure on your team, but it gives us some insight I think you have gotten your IP resolved. What not tell us what happening with the shipping. The update 100s of units through February how many of the 100’s have actually shipped?
Regards,
David


#87

actually if you search around dans mentioned the interest issue a couple of times. it’s not a lot.


#88

Companies ship things all the time. They ship to many countries around the world. And they tell you exactly when they’ll ship and exactly when you’ll get your product. It happens every second, of every day, world-wide. It’s not brain surgery. You don’t need some advanced degree in shipping logistics to say “Oh, she ordered first, so we’ll ship her’s first.”


#89

actually, the “sorry we’re late gifts” have more than exhausted the small interest they made on those deposits, and then some. There were a couple of threads on this a while back.


#90

Just my personal opinion, but a guaranteed refund is guarantee enough for me.


#91

Well that a matter of opinion, a professionally run investment should be able to pull 6 to 7% but let say it 5% that’s 2.5 million per year. That is not a lot based on the operation costs, but its a lot to me.
Regards,
David


#92

It is for me as well, but I meant that the crowd funding campaigns are pledges with no guarantee of success. In this case I did not make a pledge a paid for a laser cutter, (okay an awesome laser cutter) which is really a pre-purchase. I expect delivery just like everyone else…
Regards,
David


#93

Just wanted to interject something here. 2.5 million in interest, with at least 10,000 backers (that’s the “standard” number used around here, I have no idea how many actual Glowforges were purchased). That means the interest so far is only $250 per person.

We are being given $150 in Proofgrade materials, $50 in the Glowforge Catalog, $50 in Inventables gift certificate, 10% discount in Glowforge Catalog, and then $20 per month that they are late (currently we are at 2 months late from the December 2016 promised date, so $40 and counting…). So in my book, we are getting the interest back and probably a bit more from the company because of these delays (currently $290 + 10% discount in the catalog store + all the initial video designs for free).

Don’t just take my word for it, you can look it up here from @dan himself.

Reference threads:
From April '16: Glowforge shipping date, beta releases, and bonus materials
From December '16: Schedule update (December '16)


#94

That would be if they risked our money on investments.
They are not investing the preorder money, they are holding it.
If they invested it, and something slipped, they would not be able to give refunds. Were they doing that, I would have much less faith in getting a product, and much more fear of the company just disappearing.

The national average on savings accounts was 0.11% APY as of January 2016, according to Bankrate. Some of the biggest banks offer just 0.01% APY.


#95

Those returns are average of long term performance. Their investment horizon is in months. Even if they knew the day they opened pre-orders they wouldn’t be shipping until 2017, and there is no proof only conjecture on that point, that would still be an 18 month investment horizon. Dan has consistently said you can refund at any time. If the pre-order money was placed in an investment with any risk beyond money market risk that fact combined with Dan’s public statements would place Dan and the company in a legal gray area, aka where a lawyer’s mortgage payments are made. I find it highly unlikely the pre-order money is in anything yielding more than a fraction of a percent.

Happy cake day.


#96

Hi BDM,
I agree batch shipping is the more cost effective way to ship, and they might do just that, but you have to admit you have no idea if that’s the approach they will take, the felling I get is they are shipping to the people that are going to get them the best exposure for the product. I don’t think it’s a bad thing, in fact it does make the most sense from a business stand point. I may not like it because I want to get my hands on the laser, but I can understand it. What I want to is a little more information even if I won’t like it. Dan has been pretty good about information, but he also has more than he’s willing to tell, and example is the first delay, the power supply issue which we found out about right before things were suppose to ship. The technical details could have been given to us sooner as the original beta units were supposed to go out 3 months prior to the “announcement” …
I guess my point is I think the people who purchased the laser are tougher minded than maybe they give us credit for I would like more information even if I don’t like what I hear. Maybe I want to much but I am always looking for more information. I work at a 35 year old company with a startup mentality, I work in high tech designing silicon but I have also designed card board boxes to do the shipping. The employees own the products and we get what needs to be done …done its probably why I am an information junkie no such things as to much.
Regards,
David
Oh I wasn’t referring to you when I spoke about the crowd funding I was referring to Glowforge in general sorry about the misunderstanding.


#97

Hi Julybighouse,
Works okay as long as you use low intrest and 1 year, except that its closer to 2 years per the schedule.
Okay lets use 6 % now its up to 600 dollars or if you want to take the partial year 550-ish.
What really kicks in is the discount because we purchased prior to the cost increase I don’t remember the number off hand but that is in our favor for sure… Always love a good discount.
Regards,
David


#98

HI Carbis,
Actually high rate of returns by professionally managed investor can be 10 to 12% but general investing with a professional can yield around 6 to 7%. I used a lower number for the calculations 5 %. Also most investments don’t lock your funds they only lock your ability to move money randomly like from investment to investment every other day, this keeps the overall investment stable.
Putting monies in a bank right now is not the best strategy for anyone, and since the FDIC is only good to 250,000.00 it would be just as risky…
Regards,
David


#99

HI jbv,
I would hope they would not keep it in a bank, anything over 250,000.00 is not protected and the rates are well…
There are investments out there that can guarantee no lost of capital but they are lower in return value I would hope they would be in these… Bottom line is we don’t know its all guessing on our part.
Regards,
David


#100

Just FYI…It’s 250,000 per investor, so if you have a joint account the limit is half a mil. per bank. :relaxed:


#101

That is likely a big part of how they’re picking “pre-release” recipients which are the only ones we know are being shipped now. The other factor is likely “what might we learn from the user that we don’t already know?” so they get useful intel for the software devs.