Storm clouds on the horizon?


#1

Okay, tomorrow is the last friday of July. Information coming from Glowforge has been very, very sparse. The biggest concern is lack of shipping to members of this forum. I know our crowdsourced GF Shipping is a small representation of the larger GF audience, my owner tag says I am 1 of 6053 with the Owner tag. The owner tag has something to do with it, as they will be letting non-customers into the forum, if there is another delay, and the blowback that will come from that on the forum, is that the best idea? Right now, with those that have contributed to the Crowdsource shipping worksheet, the average delivery is .367 per day, for those on that sheet, at that rate it would require 626.7 days. That is not considering that only 1 Pro order on the forum and that sheet has received a shipping email, and zero pros have been delivered. That is even with 148 basics on that sheet, and 108 Pros. The shipping of units is and has been incredibly slow. Will that increase? Are the overheating issues causing a delay? Will there be another delay? Has the shipping box issues been resolved? Have any Pros been delivered at all, even to someone not on the forums? Can we get even an inkling of any of the issues with delivery? I think a lot of us are sensing another delay beyond Oct 31st. With the next update, which I hope will be next week sometime, can we please get some updates on shipping and the Pro Orders, which are Sasquatch like at this moment, some don’t believe they exist.


#2

Weren’t there TWO July announcements?

Some people who feel like posting to these forums have stated that they’ve either received their e-mail, or their Glowforge. As recently as today.

Like the rest of us, you have absolutely no idea the rate the units are shipping.

Not sure why folks keep putting any weight into “that sheet.” The sample size is so ridiculously small that any data extrapolated from it is useless.

Certainly appears so. My new unit box was in near-perfect condition. (I say near-perfect because one of the new plastic handles was missing. But otherwise, perfect.)

I think your “sensing another delay” is a bit premature. I sympathize with your excitement and anticipation. And I know lack of knowing the Glowforge-internal logistics is frustrating. But I think we’ve come over the crest at this point. This train is rolling and it’s only picking up speed.

I hope you, and everybody else, get your unit soon! I’m excited to see what other do with them!!!


#3

Not really, one was in the middle of June about Pro Deliveries, and then the second, which was actually in July was very brief.

As you have stated about not knowing, since you don’t know what the overall orders size is, what would be an acceptable size to extrapolate from.

Well only to those, like yourself, who have received a recent unit.


#4

I’d say 1,000.

Right… So doesn’t that exactly answer your question of if it’s resolved? :slight_smile:


#5

So, that’s a guess on your part, since you don’t know the statistical universe size that it would need to draw from.

Of course you are right, if the delays of the past have shown anything, nothing will be announced until the month that we expect delivery. So, sorry I want to ask these questions now to see if we can get any type of reassurance, any type of explanation or indication of what is going on. I know it probably won’t help, but those of us who HAVEN’T received anything will keep asking these questions.


#6

Be sure to keep an eye on https://glowforge.com/latest-improvements they post updates here that don’t make it on the forum.


#7

to be fair, that’s two within the past 5 weeks.


#8

If we go by the stated number of 10,000 orders, 1,000 would be a 10% sample size.

They have previously stated publicly that there were 500 orders in the first 15 hours. There are currently 49 entries on the spreadsheet from that period. A sample size of 9.8% - barring an unknown number of cancellations.

So… For the first day at least, we meet your sample size requirement.

And, since they have yet to make it through the first day Basic orders, we can actually extrapolate an awful lot of useful data from there.


#9

six weeks really, but okay.


#10

if you want to be really picky, 5 weeks and 3 days.


#11

Yes, but you said Within, so I was using your timeframes, not within five weeks, but within six


#12

btw, i really don’t blame people for being frustrated. they’re definitely not ramping up as quickly as they portrayed in the last schedule adjustment. we’re all guessing at how far behind they are, but i doubt any of our projections are all that accurate because we lack any way of knowing more than anecdotal data.

i’m far enough down the line that i’m not close enough to be chomping at the bit. if i was a first-day person, though, it would be driving me crazy.


#13

six of one, half dozen of the other when you’re talking about 3 days. especially in the scope of almost two years of waiting.


#14

Tell that to Political Commentators or Marketing Execs the world over.
Sample sizes of 0.5% are often used to forecast election results.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2016/11/09/the-science-of-error-how-polling-botched-the-2016-election/#64d4b5d83795

In Australia our population of 25m (with Compulsory voting over the age of 18) is often polled with sizes of just 2000-4000 participants… and is surprisingly accurate


#15

Dan has already said that the Internationals are most likely to be delayed past the Oct 31 date


#16

Really? I hadn’t seen Dan mention further delays for internationals being likely :confused:


#17

Yes I have given up all hope of receiving mine this year. Looks more like next spring to me. I expect when they actually start mass production they will announce the next delay. Probably 3 months but then I think they will fail to meet that as well.


#18

Please make sure you quote correctly. That was not what was said.


#19

Ha ha, I’m not going to argue semantics.
But you are correct: “most likely” != “higher chance of missing”

However, i would be willing to look at the track record of deliveries for Glowforges and put money down on the “most likely delayed” result being… most likely…


#20

I’m not arguing semantics , I’m arguing putting words in someone’s mouth. “Higher chance” is not synonymous with “likely.”