Storm clouds on the horizon?


#13

six of one, half dozen of the other when you’re talking about 3 days. especially in the scope of almost two years of waiting.


#14

Tell that to Political Commentators or Marketing Execs the world over.
Sample sizes of 0.5% are often used to forecast election results.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2016/11/09/the-science-of-error-how-polling-botched-the-2016-election/#64d4b5d83795

In Australia our population of 25m (with Compulsory voting over the age of 18) is often polled with sizes of just 2000-4000 participants… and is surprisingly accurate


#15

Dan has already said that the Internationals are most likely to be delayed past the Oct 31 date


#16

Really? I hadn’t seen Dan mention further delays for internationals being likely :confused:


#17

Yes I have given up all hope of receiving mine this year. Looks more like next spring to me. I expect when they actually start mass production they will announce the next delay. Probably 3 months but then I think they will fail to meet that as well.


#18

Please make sure you quote correctly. That was not what was said.


#19

Ha ha, I’m not going to argue semantics.
But you are correct: “most likely” != “higher chance of missing”

However, i would be willing to look at the track record of deliveries for Glowforges and put money down on the “most likely delayed” result being… most likely…


#20

I’m not arguing semantics , I’m arguing putting words in someone’s mouth. “Higher chance” is not synonymous with “likely.”


#21

I’m amused at how these topics always seem to turn into a battle between nihilists and sycophants.


#22

OMG THE SKY IS FALLING!

ooh, look an acorn. let’s plant a tree.

:slight_smile:


#23

This is how I got my number… I figure a 10% sample size is reasonable in this case.

Certainly, I agree. As I’d originally said, I completely understand the feelings. In fact, I’ve shared some of them.


#24

There are a lot of people on this forum that do not use ‘the sheet’ as an accurate measure. I know I do not look at it and I do not plan on updating it when I get my order.


#25

Yes I keep my own tally. I have seen twice as many people mention they have the email or machine than are on the sheet. Regulars tend not to take part but they would skew the results anyway.

The rest of us use the sheet as the best measure available and shows they haven’t got through the first day orders yet. If they were running at the rate needed to make their target they would have all the first day orders done in less than a week. They need to ramp up production by about two orders of magnitude and if anything it seems to have slowed significantly after the middle of June and hasn’t got back to that level yet.


#26

I don’t think we need the sheet at all to tell they are shipping incredibly slowly. Just given that a number of people who ordered day one have still not yet received even the shipping email its a easy deduction that they have then not yet shipped all of the day one orders. Then by their own announcements they sold ~1.5 million $ on day one and $28 million in the first 30 days. Basic math say then they have shipped less than 5% of the those total orders. I see really only 2 outcomes given this speed, either A they need to dramatically increase shipping volume, or B there will be yet more delays. And given their history to this point I sadly have little doubt on which outcome it will be.


#27

That’s the beauty of statistics: you don’t need data from the entire population - just a sample. And that sample size grows by the day.

You can tell a lot from the data we have.

@dan stated here that they sold 500 units in the first 15 hours.

From the spreadsheet:

-There are currently 41 entries from that time frame, giving a sample size of 8.2%. An enormous sample by any measure, and likely larger than that due to the unknown amount orders that have been cancelled.
-There are 20 Basics, 20 Pros, 1 unspecified, which closely tracks @dan 's statements about the early mix of unit sales.
-9 Basic units have either been marked shipped (2) or delivered (7), giving us a 45% delivery rate.

Reasonable extrapolation: If they sold 500 units, with a 50% mix, gives us 250 Basics sold in the first 15 hours. If they have shipped 45% of those, that would be 113 units.

There have been about 40 working days since they stated they began production, giving a number of 2.8 units per day.

We know of about 20 units that were sold after the first 15 hours that were also shipped, plus an untold number of units that were replaced for defects (which has been surprisingly large - a concerning issue). So, the number per day is likely larger, but not by much.

It’s obvious to anyone but the most staunch defender that they are way behind on production (not even half way through the first day orders yet - by all accounts), and the spreadsheet data tracks very closely to that.

Like it or not - that spreadsheet (for at least the first day orders) is proving to be pretty accurate.

EDIT: They are actually not even a quarter of the way through the first day orders, as the “half-way” statement only referred to Basics, not Pros.


#28

let’s just avoid trying to calculate any real statistical margin of error here, let alone sampling errors. :wink:


#29

All we really need is at least one person per day of ordering on the spread sheet. Then we know which day they are processing give or take a day and that is a very good measure of how far through the orders they are and how far each of us is from getting ours.


#30

presuming you can factor in other things, like pro vs basic, international vs US, other random variables that we know they’re using (since some people who weren’t first day buyers have units).

i mean, yeah, it’s the best measure we have, but all of the data people are using is flawed, at best. and we don’t really know how flawed, so sampling errors abound.


#31

Okay, at least I’m not the only one who has felt this way. While the quick return and replace has done a great job highlighting Glowforges excellent support team, every time I see one die it puts a little knot in the pit of my stomach, especially considering how few there still are in the wild. I have no doubt this is improving with time, but I’m a bit of a worry wart sometimes :wink:


#32

Yes it is very worrying for overseas shipping. None of the faults were apparent as damage at delivery, so how does that work? Is it a warranty return? In which case overseas shipping isn’t covered, so we would have to fix the fault ourselves. As GF never disclose what the actual faults are that will be tricky.

One issue seems to be the tube mounting. Because it is on a moving carriage it has to be rigidly mounted, otherwise the beam would wander during motion. In a machine with a stationary tube it can be mounted on shock absorbing mounts.