I have approximate total order counts by date for certain dates:
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This represents cumulative number of Glowforges ordered by the date indicated ā¦ right? 
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Correct, for the most part. I think itās orders placed, so if someone ordered 1000 forges on a single order, that would add 1 to this amount instead of 1000. Seeing as how thatās pretty improbable, I would say this data is a fairly good representation
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Agreed, there is also a large possibility it wasnāt just shipping materials theyāve been waiting on after the initial units were produced and shipped. They may have also been waiting on any number of parts to arrive in order to scale production.
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As always, thanks for the update! 
Those screens though!! Right up my alley with larger scale projects like that. So stoked to see that, and so glad I bought a pro! Canāt wait <3
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Letās not forget there are institutions and organizations that are not represented at all on the forum and could be receiving their units. Those customers are also likely to buy several and may receive them at the same time rather than one shipping email at a time. Everything that is not a Dan post is speculation though.
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I love those screens! Thanks for the update, but I had been hoping to hear how after a really slow first couple days the Pro shipments would be coming a little quicker. It doesnāt look like thereās been much of a dent in first day orders for either Pro or Basic, and ours went in on the 26th. After our chat at Maker Faire Bay Area Iād been hoping weād get ours in time to use it for some art for this yearās Burning Man, but I think that was a little too optimistic. Iām still hopeful, and glad to hear about the packaging improvements.
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Yes but that doesnāt matter. We have a spread sheet with 229 people on it and only 17 deliveries after 8 weeks. At the current rate it will take two years.
I doubt there are many organisations that ordered on the first day because it is hard to get a purchase order and payment through that fast in an organisation.
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Lol at your speculation calling out other speculation as not important.
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Mine isnāt speculation of hypothetical organisations ordering multiple machines on the first day. It is real data from a spread sheet. It is the only measure we have and unless you think there is something statistically odd about the sample of people who volunteered their information it should be pretty representative.
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This is speculation.
This is an assumption about average rates that could be true or could have nothing to do with reality. Either way, your post was needlessly dismissive.
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Have you ever tried to order something as a member of an organisation? Very hard to do it in a single day in an organisation big enough to order multiple machines.
Yes or course it is possible that the MD of a big company ordered 200 on the first day and Glowforge have been churning out hundreds a month for the last two months, but I donāt think so.
Two years is extrapolation if the rate does not change. Of course I expect it to increase at some point but it is a simple statement of fact to say āAt the current rate it will take two years.ā
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Either way, we have a sample, and itās the best we have. When you donāt communicate, people speculate, thatās the way it works. Thereās a way to fix that but itās not my company and itās not my choice to make. Iāve been part of other crowdfunding/pre-order projects that are more transparent about their shipping (e.g. up to #1234/23456) but Glowforge has been quite clear that theyāre never going to tell us that. So we are left trying to extrapolate. People who are good with statistics could probably put some error bars on it and calculate the exact probability that shipments are or are not stalled.
All I know is it looks like Iām not getting a birthday present today. My happiness was at a local maximum when I saw the first post that a Pro e-mail went out, and has been slowly declining since, as it has become clear that was a single token order, so that āJune 30: Glowforge Pro shipments startā would be technically correct. Weāve seen this cycle a few times: initial hope, gradual worry, and a dawning realization that hope is not a strategy and the numbers are telling a different story. There are 109 days left until āOctober 31: All Basic and Pro orders placed by 10/26/2015 shippedā. Iām not that great with math, but at the current rate of progress, only 1/4 of the ones we know about will be delivered by then. Thereās probably some function involving āeā that would explain how non-linearly production would have to ramp up to change that, and how much less realistic it gets with each passing day of lost progress.
Huh. I didnāt start out intending to be so negative, I guess Iām more bummed out today than I thought.
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Well Happy Birthday anyway. 
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Happy bday! I would not say itās negative, you make very valid points and have every right to be dissapointed.
Iām not too much in a rush to get it as I have a bit of time left to get the workshop space setup, but fully understand other folks anxiousness.
Plus the longer it takes, the more features will be enabledā¦ 
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I asked this question a couple times on the Facebook page and could not get a straight answer from whoever was responding. It also took them 3 days to respond.
For us Canadian backers that got in before the end of the campaign, is there even a vague idea of when our orders will start shipping. Pretty much at the end of my rope patience wise. If my wife had her way we would already have the refund.
This is the best I can do for you.
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I agree, your not necessarily being negative, just pragmatic with what info we have to base estimates from. I am happy that they are indeed shipping at least some, but I ordered day 2 and my euphoria has been very very tempered that its still looking like weeks or even a month plus before I get mine at this current rate.
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More than once, and itās not hard; here at least. =P
With my employer we only have to get any special signatures when weāre talking millions of dollars for an order.
Departments which order equipment have budgets and corporate credit card accounts for such things, and orders can be placed for new equipment in minutes when thereās a need. Iāve seen server racks filled with a single order after a resource bottleneck was identified.
This is a Fortune 500 company, tho, so Iāll admit that our definitions of what a ābig enoughā organization is could be different. =P
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Over the past month, I have been thinking about upgrading from a Basic to a Pro. Last week, I contacted GF Customer Support to see if an upgrade to a Pro would delay the timing of when I might receive my GF.
On July 7, Danny responded as follows: "If you upgrade, your order date remains the same before and after your upgrade. If you upgrade to a Glowforge Pro, it would arrive between June 30 and November 30th. All things being equal, we ship based on your (original) order date.
Weāll be producing Pro units at a higher rate so we expect things to move quickly. We expect to complete Pro shipments at the same time as Basic shipments, if not sooner.
If your upgrade includes an Air Filter, then when your Glowforge Pro is ready, weāll send an email to collect your shipping address. If you would like to wait until your Air Filter is ready, you can ask us to hold the shipment for you at that time. Air Filters will ship between September 30th and December 31st."
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