I’ve had a number of actual, real investments, that if everything had gone to plan, would have provided wonderful returns. But… if wishes were horses, beggars would ride, I suppose.
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I forgot to take the time and earning power during this 3 years into account.
Trotect is expensive in Australia, but if we started in 3 years ago, we should have breakeven by now.
Full Spectrum’s shipping cost is USD1000 for MUSE, and price is similar to GF.
You did the right decision to cancel it. Because I did too.
And I agree with you, it’s an investment. We are not just buying a machine to entertain us.
Sure it is to entertain, always has been, and that is true no matter how many of us who own one deny it.
Even the Advertising showed it as Entertaining. It was being used in a kitchen not a workshop.
They did not show it popping out a 1,000 order of bunny’s in a speedy manner, they showed it cutting snacks and kiddie trinkets in a kitchen. Maximum Entertainment…
The advertising that show a laser popping out the 1,000 order of bunny’s in breakneck speed belong to the industrial grade machines, which start in the $15,000 to $18,000 ranges.
So admit it or not, this machine is at best, made for the enthusiastic hobbyist.
I can even be generous, and allow for an entry level entrepreneur trying to do things on the cheap just to see if it is practical or until they can afford an industrial grade machine.
For me the decision was easy, since I was already trying very hard to justify spending the $15k for a laser to round out my workshop, which was tough, since I was retired and not looking to make it into a J.O.B. to pay for itself.
In a true eureka moment, it was like Dan & Crew saw my struggle and were handing me a gift. Buy a Glowforge instead…
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The ad was for the basic model, but pro can do much more.
I didn’t expect to have 1,000 orders of bunnys. Sometime one good idea worth greater than 1,000 bunnys. We planed to use it for model prototype instead of asking 3rd party to cut them for us. It’s more flexible and easier.
I definitely know there are many happy GF owners here, they enjoy their machine. But for us, international buyers, we have no sight of when we will get the machine. The estimated delivery time has been delayed 3 times just in few month and we did not get details and explanation.
My friend tried to order one few days ago, his estimated delivery time is the same as for me who have been waited for years. And he was able to order it at a cheaper price. Added that new US buyer can get delivered in 10 days of purchase but we are still waiting.
I’m really frustrated. I have requested cancellation. Maybe when GF’s international delivery is actually happening, I will come back. Meanwhile I will take the money back and use it on her projects.
I will lost assess to the forum very soon because of the cancellation. I hope you enjoy your machine and make fun stuff. 
I disagree.
If you are a graphic designer you buy Hardware and Software to allow you to deliver work and make an income. Your expenditure is an Investment in your business.
The same goes for an Excavator, perhaps a Vehicle and in the case of a laser cutting business a CNC Laser.
These items, even education, are a far more literal investment that the shares you and i might own.
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He did not buy a laser. When he tried, his money was put in an interest-bearing account – an investment by any definition – for 31 months and counting. The representations made to him regarding what he would get in exchange for such an opportunity cost – a laser in a matter of months at a substantial discount versus what retail customers would pay – are proving to be false.
His point is that if he had put it in his own interest-bearing account instead of Dan’s, he would have made something like AU$865. The discount at this point appears to be AU$418. And there is no reason to believe that his “purchase” will be complete any time soon. Had this been the original representation, anyone in their right mind would have said no.
He is entirely in his right mind to be angry.
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I’d take that with a grain of salt. The best savings account interest rates are running in the 2.5-3% range*. A far cry from the 7% claimed to have been the alternative investment return. Bonds might have done that but they’re more speculative than bank returns and at those rates would seem to be high-risk bonds.
(* Using BankSA, Bank of Melbourne, HSBC, Citi & Bank of Australia variable interest savings accounts as the benchmark. The listed rates are the max vs minimums that go all the way down to less than 1% like here in the U.S.)
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I never said that it wasn’t his right. Nor do I blame him for being angry. I would probably be also.
If you want to call it an investment, be my guest. The definition of that can be as wide as the net you want to throw around. It’s simply an asset. And a depreciating one at that. What you do with the tool is up to you or whomever. Mine has paid for itself several times, yet it’s not an investment. It’s a depreciating asset.
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That would be true if he had one. The point is that he doesn’t. He paid US$2600 almost three years ago and he has nothing except perhaps a free book by Dan Shapiro about how to be a great startup CEO.
Granted, that one has probably depreciated a fair bit.
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Lol, nice research but the reality is quite different - to be honest i did not even know banks still offered those!
Investment in Australia is often through Managed Funds (mine is very low risk and still coming in at 5.5% (taking into account tax, fees and dividends) - double the bunny money the banks offer.
We have fairly high ‘financial literacy’ and low trust for banks… there is a Royal Commission into Banks going on in Parliment right now
Other options we have is into Superannuation and then more aggressive options like Property.
My property portfolio SMASHED cash investments with ease (getting the cash out is the problem with Property)
Lastly we also need to take into account the disparity between the US Exchange rate then and now which, along with the small cost, why i have not bothered refunding.
tl:dr: great research but Australians invest very differently to the US.
Indeed, i have lived in the US, Germany and obviously Japan and have often been struck by the huge differences in finanace and investment between the countries.
I see the figure 7.7% as being a decent return for a higher risk return… and i think @jason1 point was that over 3 years the Glowforge has proved to be extremely high risk indeed
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i have to agree on the return thing. if you put it in a savings account, sure. but savvy investors don’t do that. my investments have generally been pulling a solid 10%+ for the past 5+ years. i don’t think it’s out of line to think someone could make 7%.
As have mine (actually somewhat more - instead of trying to match Warren Buffett I just invest in Berkshire and let him do the heavy lifting 
).
But there’s risk that it could be substantially less - that’s why the rate premium exists. If you’re going to compare GF to higher risk investments, you also need to consider as with the GF, sometimes you come up on the negative side of things - as anyone invested in the equity markets in the US in 2001 or property markets in 2008 could tell.
After all, if I had invested the cost of a GF in Apple in 2001 I’d be in a far better position The trouble with these comparisons is that one is always taking advantage of hindsight and self-selection of a better investment and a disregard for the potentially equally probable options that do not fit the narrative.
When buying or investing in a new product you’re taking a risk - in this case hoping for a 40% savings from retail.
The GF never made sense from a business investment point of view - it would have been a layup to have bought or leased an Epilog for similar money and had immediate access & returns.
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you’re right that there was risk, and that it wasn’t an investment opportunity, per se. but that doesn’t mean it’s not unfair to say even minimal investment could have had a better return for those who’ve continued to be delayed while GF lowers their price. nor does it mean people complaining about it don’t have legitimate gripes. and could have lost money on the deal.
now, if everyone lost, that would suck. for for those who did lose, seeing others who didn’t probably feels like salt in the wound. and i don’t blame them at all for being severely unhappy.
Has there been any word on the price and user serviceability of replacement tubes? Info was promised before shipping time (see 3/17 update), but I don’t see any updates after March.
I’d like to factor the tube into pricing when I do prints for other people. I didn’t worry about it, and then a printmaker friend gave me a project that’s starting to look like a 12 hour raster cut. It probably only works out to $5, but I’m suddenly contending with the concept that cut time ain’t free.
I thought Dan commented somewhere with an estimated price / shipping etc…
I believe the only pricing around that was the $500 which included the tube replacement and round trip shipping (within US).
I think it was $499. I would expect a d-i-y tube replacement to be about 70% of that. They won’t be paying for shipping the big box, but they will also likely have a fair amount of support needed as well.
Dan, “As Soon As” is meaningless to me, “Full Speed” is meaningless to me, “Sorry” is meaningless to me, “Very large gift Cert” is meaningless to me.
Please talk to me as a human, not a reply machine. I just want the machine, or want to know why my delivery date is push back again and again WITHOUT ANY explanation!
Please say to me and many user who did not recieve thier machine, what is the problem that you can’t send the machine to us, what are you doing NOW! Show me the roadmap of delivery to each country (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia…) And don’t just push back the delivery date again and again and at the same time say that your are happy in…etc!
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If you are looking for someone to blame, look to your government. It’s not Glowforge that is delaying your delivery, the backlog of orders is clear. More than likely some Safety regulation branch of your government has imports on hold for one reason or another. It’s probable the date they are giving you is based on the safety review cycle of that agency. This is after all, a potential fire hazard, that can spew out toxic fumes if not used correctly.
If I were in one of the effected countries I would have pulled out, and got a refund when the price drop was announced. At this point you aren’t saving a place in the production line anymore. It’s a disappointment sure, but you could do something else with the money while you wait for the Glowforge to clear the red tape in your country.
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It is nothing to do with governments other than the US government allows the sale of electrical products without any safety approval. If they had to be imported to the US they would be just as delayed because they still don’t have UL approval. Governments simply stipulate the safety standards you need to comply with and then you use independent test houses to show they comply.
Standard project management would have required them to start the safety approvals a lot earlier in order to complete them by any of the dates they gave in the past. How could they say they would all be delivered last October and then still be a year out? And any of the previous dates they gave are now shown to be just ridiculous. Remember they promised delivery by the second quarter of 2016, no mention that would just be domestic.
I don’t think they even started the process until the point last year where they announced the list of countries they were dropping. And because they didn’t look at the requirements at the start of the design process they had to make changes to the design after production had started.
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