Lead times / factory build times / committed ship date / regulatory certifications.
There is about 12 weeks until the July 31 committed date. Typically a program manager would have answers to all of the following at this point.
Are they on schedule to have all their required regulatory certifications on or before July 31. (Cant ship production product without them).
Do they have committed deliveries or parts on hand to accommodate the builds for the July 31 committed date?
Does the glow forge team have a commitment from their contract manufacture that they have the capabilities to meet the July 31 committed date?
Working in the embedded electronic space I know there are many constraints on memory parts right now and the lead times are in many cases excess of 14 weeks (and other parts like oscillators can be over 18 weeks). If they do not have the memory locked down they will know that their July 31 date is not realistic already.
I believe it will be a serious blow to credibility if they wait until July 30 to announce another significant push out due to part deliveries or certification issues.
[quote=ālgibson, post:1, topic:7494, full:trueā]I believe it will be a serious blow to credibility if they wait until July 30 to announce another significant push out due to part deliveries or certification issues.
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Credibility saved, thereās no fear of a July 30th announcement. (Thatās a Sunday.)
I have know doubt they have all that information. Iām just not going to hold my breath waiting for it to be shared. They havenāt historically shared anything before complete and verified except in the vaguest terms so not really expecting them to start now.
I have said this many times before, especially after each delay, and Iāll say it again: Iād rather wait for as long as it takes to get a product as close to perfect as possible, instead of a rushed job with lots of issues.
Iād stand by that, even without a pre-release unitā¦even if I had to return the pre-release unit and go without one, same as everyone else who is still waiting.
If youāre one of the people who are skittish about another delay, Iāll say this right now: Consider cancelling your order and progressing with whichever alternative plan (if any) that you have in place.
No one sets out to fail in success. Glowforge is under-promising in hopes to over-deliver. They donāt want you to fail either, and will refund your money so you can find success elsewhere if you need to.
To that end ā if you need it, ask for a refund. You shouldnāt expect finer details of any possible delay (if there are any) beyond a simple one-sentence answer. Accept that there will always be a non-0% chance they might miss the date.
On a lighter noteā¦ my $2290 USD has increased in value by about $200 CAD. (Hurray?)
Why do people default to āask for a refundā when people ask a standard industry question about lead times and schedule?
The responses of āask for a refundā show me deeper underlining issue with the release and communication process.
Simply if they know the July 31 date is not possible at this point they should comuincate it. If they dont have the mateiral they cant build. it is that simple. If they will not have reglatory certs they cant ship. it is that simple.
This responce ādoes not followā. I am not asking them to make changes to quality. My question is do they have material plan / build plan that meets the July 31 date.
Assuming it wasnāt a rhetorical question ā itās because asking the same question as others and expecting a different result is unlikely to happen.
One must assume that certain aspects are in flux. ie. [Edit: hypothetically] they may have been assured certification would be granted by July 15th, but being granting it is ultimately beyond their control.
Is that Glowforgeās fault? No. Can they ship under that circumstance if they fail to get it granted? No. Does it mean the Glowforge currently cannot (or will not) receive certification? No. Can they promise the July 30th date as a result of waiting for it to be granted? No.
I expect that if certifications are the only thing holding it up, weāll find out when theyāre actually granted.
As for not having enough partsā¦ well, I trust theyāll let people know if thereās a shortage hindering production.
I think Glowforge, their contract manufacturer and their vendors are well aware of lead times for given components and more than likely, the hardware was pinned down long ago, giving them plenty of time to stock for production.
If January, February and March were about building the new volume production line, theyāve got the hardware side locked down pretty well.
Even then, itās common (and should be best practice) to design around components that are typically available in good supply without delivery issues, in order to avoid hiccups. How ridiculous would it be to have an entire production line held up by a 50 cent component with known shortages, when it could have been easily swapped for something else without supply problems?
Plus, according to past announcements their plan was scaled up production after a new line was finished in March, so who knows how many hundreds if not thousands of units they already have built.
10,000 finished units is hardly even a blip on production volume when talking about electronic goods. Thatās basically an average of 1,000 units per week from this point til the projected final delivery date? Thatās a cakewalk for electronics manufacturing.
If the hardware has already been ānailed downā, they could be pumping out units even now while they wait for regulatory approval. Maybe not full production quantity, but enough.
In theory, all those units are waiting for their āUL Approvedā stickers to be applied. Itād be a huge financial gamble, of course. If it fails to be granted approval, that also means correcting all those units.
I work in the electronics industry and work with many of the certifications they need. I obtain many of the same certifications that glowforge will require. So I understand the reasons why they would not be cerfitified (and yes that would be their issue and in their control as it is their design)
I am also watching the memory allocation issues and dealing with them myself. Communicating schedule is standard in the industry.
āItās because asking the same question as others and expecting a different result is unlikely to happen.ā Can you point to me a thread that is asking these specific questions that would derail the delivery date? Or is any question about the ship date forbidden?
I am not asking for āsecretsā. Actually their certificaitons must be made public and placed on the machine and or packaging.
āitās just not possible to hand hold every single person who feels antsyā I am not asking to have my hand held, i am asking questions in a forum designed to have questions answered.
To my recollection, Dan has never given a direct response to identify delays related to regulatory approval other than to (paraphrasing here) say that regulatory approval is on-going.
He has identified that regulatory approval is happening ā that tests are being conducted ā but he has never cited an outcome condition where the approval or failure of a test would give cause to change the shipping date.
Itās absolutely reasonable for you to ask these, or any other questions you might be curious about. In this case, Iām going to hold to our usual practice on not commenting on interim status or milestones. Youāre quite correct that our management team knows certification and part inventory levels, as well as the relationship with our manufacturer, but Iām not going to publish any details on those topics.
The issue here is simply, we are customers, not investors. Glowforge is under zero obligation to give us any more detailed info than āThis is the expected delivery date.ā
Yet, because Glowforge (and other companies) have taken to social outlets to give the masses a little more insight to the inner workings, and because we have nearly direct access to the CEO, suddenly the masses feel entitled to ask (and in some cases on this forum, outright DEMAND) about details that run even deeper. @lgibson you would not believe some of the completely absurd things some folks have demanded to know, on this forum (not your request, specifically) so some folks are on a hair trigger when they see lots of questions being lobbed.
As to being able to ship a basic unit to everyone who ordered it by the end of July, from my experience of the pre-release I have, I canāt imagine that they wouldnāt be ready. Iām happy with what I have.
As to the software fulfilling the promise of the 2015 launch publicity, Iām happy with what I have now.
As to having Proofgrade stocked to handle all the needs of customers who have ordered and depend on it for perfect prints without any design work, the stuff I have is excellent. How much they have ready to go? Who knows. Iād like to see more varieties, but almost everything promoted on the launch video is there.
has increased in value by about $200 CAD. (Hurray?)