Looking for the elusive "spreadsheet"


#1

I was curious as to where this often referred to spreadsheet resides.
I have a Pro on order and would like to know when to expect arrival in order to prepare my lab appropriately.
Any ideas? Anyone? Bueller?


Happy Watching Numbers
#2

From being caught off guard all I can say is prepare early. I thought Home Depot, IKEA and Harbor Freight all close I thought I could just deal with it at the last minute. But then I got told in no uncertain terms the table suggested from IKEA was unacceptable. And work got high stakes and then vacation planning and hurricanes and suddenly there is a glowforge here and panic ensues.


#3

The spreadsheet has some good info about where we are at in a general sense, but keep in mind that it is not a schedule and more of a roll-call of the forum denizens and who has received what. About 95% of the GF orders are not represented at all, so tread carefully making projections from the data we have.


#4

Thanks! I see that there is a lot of info, but who enters it? Are we entering our own data on the sheet?


#5

Very true, but it does give a sense of how far along orders are coming, and lets you have a better idea of when to expect the email from GF.


#6

Thanks! I’m going to go ahead and get ready, even if it means waiting for months - better to not be taken off guard I guess.


#7

Thanks for sending that link!


#8

Yes!
Seems someone has set up some other sheets, the one labeled “DATA” is the master page.
If you know how to insert yourself where you are you can go ahead, otherwise you can enter your info on to the bottom of the list and I’ll sort it in.


#9

Going to have to keep this quote from @dan on speed dial. but thought it relevant again to the prognostication value of the spreadsheet.

still thank you very much @cbarker for setting it up and maintaining it through the great format wars of '17


#10

So you prefer to believe Dan, who has proved to be 100% wrong on timescales, by up to a factor of 8, than some actual real data.

They way I view it is a lot of invisible people are unrepresented but since I will never know if they have their machine or not it makes no difference to me. If people that are on the spreadsheet don’t get ticked off at an average rate of three per day the schedule will not be met, regardless of how representative or not it is.


#11

Yes.


#12

Now is the time to do that. Seriously. Get your ducks in a row because they are shipping pros now.


#13

has that “real actual data” been proven any more accurate in predicting future shipment dates?

i mean, it has some value, but it has no actual capability of predicting future delivery patterns because it has no information about manufacturing and what the plans on scaling over the next 3 months will be. so it has some value in giving a sense of where things are in a broad stroke, but as far as future predictions…

¯_(ツ)_/¯


#14

Yes because if you bought a pro machine on day 1 it looks likely you will have it in the next few weeks if you are in the US and don’t live in Washington state. The only source of information is the schedule that says you will get it before the end of October.


#15

Well according to that logic, there will never be a Glowforge for people… Wow, he has succeeded in getting 45 million dollars for just being Dan. That is impressive. {/sarcasm}


#16

ok, fair enough that it does has some rough guideline into “where we are right now.” but what if you bought a pro on day 3? day 5? we don’t know what the difference in total numbers is between day 1 and day 5, nor do we know what rate GF will scale manufacturing between right now and the time they get to day 5 orders.

so yes, if you’re in the limited subset of “US customer” and “people getting theirs now were right before me in the queue,” you know you’re likely going to get yours soon. if you’re not in that subset, it’s not particularly predictive.

again, i see value in knowing where they are in the process, but i don’t see it being particularly useful in predicting much past where we are at the moment you look at it.


#17

If you ordered a basic you can see the current rate has slowly increased from about 1 per day to 1.4 per day in the last month, so you can see how many are before you and estimate how long it will take to get to you.

Very rough but much better then between now and the end of October.

For pros there isn’t enough data yet.


#18

that’s not just very rough, it’s interpolating on data that’s non-existent. i.e., the fact that they ramped from 1.0 to 1.4 in the past 30 days doesn’t predict that they’ll continue ramping at that same rate.

it’s good news that it’s ramping up, and that’s of definite value to know, but will it tell you how long it will be til you get yours, even roughly? probably not. you don’t know the ramp up scaling, you don’t know how many international deliveries are between you and the current state. you don’t know what the % of pro vs basic will be between now and then. more unknown than known.


#19

No I wont know anything positive about my order until the first EU order ships.


#20

i meant the imperial “you” (i.e., a general end user) in that comment, not specifically you, since you’re international.