They’re both engineers. It’s pretty cool watching their cogs turn.
Damn you. There’s half an hour I won’t get back. (Kind of worth it, though).
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I haven’t done the research you’ve done, so apologies if my frog analogy doesn’t strike a chord with you. I still believe that the technique of gradually slipping the date again and again, as opposed to providing a single realistic estimate as to when they would be ready to produce the machine in the volumes necessary to fulfill their order backlog, was intentional. It is also possible that it was the result of refusing to learn from their own experience (e.g. ignoring evidence that suggested they would encounter challenges along the way and simply building a schedule based on the assumption that everything would go exactly as planned).
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Yes I will get a e-mail probably within a few days. And I will have a pro glowforge to use.
I believe the latter (engineers are always certain that they’ll be successful all the way up to when they’re not and then they repeat that 
). I understand others believe the former.
Pretty sure it’s hardwired into people - that’s why no one is changing anyone else’s minds here with all the back & forth. It becomes a religious debate not unlike glass half full or half empty.
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I wrote that on June 27th, and I stand by it. In 36 years as a software engineer, I’ve been through many product development cycles. Some have been delivered on time. Others have slipped significantly. You can’t account for every contingency. If you’re slipping a product launch, it’s because you’ve found things you hadn’t been able to predict. And if you think you’re that close to shipping, 6 months is a far-off horizon beyond which almost nothing can be predicted. Because if you could predict it, you wouldn’t have thought you were close to shipping.
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Was the Program Manager and Chief Engineer on a half dozen projects that dwarfed the cost of the GF laser. $35M -$120M. All but one was within 15% of original cost and time projections. The customer and budget authority thought I walked on water because it was unheard of to meet the performance and cost estimates.
My least complicated project doubled in price and tripled in duration. All of a sudden I didn’t know how to manage a project. The designer of a new integrated circuit couldn’t get me the part after 3 years of trying. It’s pretty darn easy to point fingers. Looking forward to Karma for those that do.
BTW:. My projects were technically more challenging but far, far easier than delivering a GF laser because I only needed to build one or two prototypes. Logistics and manufacturing is the hardest part. So don’t have a lot of respect for anyone that claims they could do it better, no matter their experience.
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Getting the news that an estimated ship date was posted, I checked my account for it. My pre-order for a basic was on the 24th of October - which is in the 30-day window. Yet my shipping date is estimated for mid-February 2018! The production status today (10/27) says basic machines from Day 20 are being shipped… and I was on day 30… so I’m guessing production should be able to finish the 30 day preorders sometime in November?
Suffice to say I’m a bit confused because the estimated date doesn’t jive with what is being posted. And my estimated date has already slipped - it first was at the end of January 2018 and now it is mid-February 2018. I’m in the US so international certification is not involved here. Is the algorithm for this estimate really working?
If it is, at least on the bright side my Proofgrade credit is getting bigger!
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Same here, my date for shipping was in January and now I just rechecked and it is February. I to ordered within the first initial 30 days…CRAZY
It’s getting better. They are sending out the golden ticket emails for day 26 pro orders at the moment.
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The best guesses we have indicate that roughly half of the orders during the campaign happened in the last week or so. I think that’s why the estimated times are slipping out.
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Thanks - not knowing how many they’ve actually made so far to cover the first 20 days of sales against the final total does make it hard to know the real rate of production, and I think that exact rates might be something from a business perspective you’d want to keep hidden. And they do note that the forecasting software is “beta.” 
Dan at one time said sales were almost evenly split between basics and pros. I have seen estimates that they sold between 12,000 and 14,000 machines. (Depending on actual breakout and how many filters sold) If they sold half during the last week, then they have around 3,000 to 3,500 basics units to make to fulfill the last week of orders.
They are on day 26 on the pros (I’m day 26 pro and got my GT email last night). I’d be willing to bet that they are trying to get all pro owners in the 30 day pre-order campaign their GT emails by the 31st, so they can say they “shipped” all of the pros by the 31st.
I wonder if the “shipment” of all preorder pros is tied to additional investor funding or maybe since those are more expensive units, they are freeing up more buyer money. (Or maybe they need to show dollar sales for 2017 to their investors, so more money freed up the better).
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Hi all, new delay for me. That’s enough 
Could you please send me the url to ask for refund. I don’t find it…
Thanks
You just e-mail support as far as I know.
Anyone who has canceled will not be here, so no answer from that quarter…
I saw an url last day…I thought there was a link.
No matter, i will contact support
That’s it !
Before cancelling, i want to say " good luck " to international customers.
I hope you won’t have to wait too much time…
It was a pleasure to post here but the community is only open to customers so i have to go out 
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My day came and went as well which I expected now it says Dec 18th. I’ll wait to see that one come and go to I’m guessing with no communication.
I do hold out some all be it slim hope that the banner of being on day 20 that maybe my unit will ship soon since I’m in the 30 days. Although no golden ticket email.
Although I’m a day 27 order so if @dan and the banner was to be believed I should at the least of had a do you want it email I would think rather then looking to see yet another delay who knows maybe im wrong and its not how it works.
Yes I did the same thing. I ordered my pro on the 20th of Oct 2015 and have the 30th of Oct also. Maybe we will get our golden ticket next week.:)