It looks like you may be using your own definitions for words too. I’ve never heard of an estimate being called a promise. Every date given by Glowforge is an estimate. None of it is set in stone, and none of it is a promise. We should all be used to this by now.
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The promise is in reference to the “updated regularly”, not the missed notification date. If you commit to regular updates, then you should at least provide a new estimate when you miss the original estimate, IMHO. At least that’s the way all my projects worked in my 35+ years delivering software. And btw, providing an updated estimate prior to missing the original date is just common sense. Many a project manager lost their job because they came to management on the day something was due and told them then they were going to miss the date.
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When “updated regularly” is in reference to estimates, and coming from Glowforge, it should be read as “updated inaccurately several times over the next few months or years.”
[Conspiracy Theory]: It’s possible, I guess, that GlowForge is just so confident in their market placement that they are trying to see how many pre-order customers they can anger and cause to cancel orders, so they can sell those machines at current list price. An interesting business model to obtain a free 2+ year loan, you have to admit.
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Even more interesting to put that money in a no-risk, low-interest account and then spend more than the interest in perks while not using the money for anything until they begin fulfillment on each machine… not very bright for conspirators.
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That means they will update it once a month, or every 6months, but they won’t tell you which until Month #5.
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A few points:
(1) They incur costs for the perks only when they ship the machine. Therefore, a canceled machine incurs no costs to them other than the order overhead.
(2) Their cost for the perks is significantly less than the face/retail value presented for the perk, so not sure I agree that exceeds the potential interest earned.
(3) Not sure where you get your data on the “no-risk, low-interest account”. Although I agree that they would likely have to minimize risk, there are many financial instruments available to deliver a moderate return with relatively low risk to capital.
(4) You are neglecting to take into account the cash flow impact; e.g. while it might be neutral from a balance sheet perspective, it would likely afford the company more attractive terms in negotiating debt/loans (an indirect benefit).
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They’ve said a few times the money everyone paid is in an escrow account until you say yes to the “do you want your Glowforge email.” So they are earning a little interest. Not much, but still better than nothing.
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My date is October 26th. I don’t see the shipping counts moving so I too am worried that it will get delayed. Please @dan don’t let me down
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Dan posted somewhere that they are earning 1% interest. First month pre-orders alone were $27M.
Maybe. But I doubt it. I think they’d rather get you the machine and hope you show your friends cool stuff you made with it.
I doubt they are as confident in the market position they’d need to be to let some customers leave unhappy on purpose. Some will, but it’s not the desired outcome.
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I agree they are working hard to get everyone their product. They just underestimated how much work this was going to be. At least they didn’t walk away. They are working hard to get us our forges. I imagine all theses delays give @dan many a sleepless night.
They’ve never said exact percentage. This is the only number they ever gave that I could find.
Edit: apparently they did give an approximate percentage. See @jbmanning5’s post below.
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I just got my shipment of proofgrade materials today. What is the lag time after those arrive that the Glowforge itself shows up?
Can’t wait to get my pro. My wife is super excited.
It has ranged from 3 days to 10 days (as a median). Some have gotten it the same day others out to 20 days.
We keep the funds in a zero-risk account that pays ~1% interest per year.
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Proofgrade materials ship out of TN. The GF ships out of CA, so it really depends on where you live. I thought people were saying they were receiving their GFs about 3 weeks after the golden ticket email.
Yes, @jbmanning5 posted that while I was looking it up and trying to figure out how to quote a post from a different thread in here! (Thanks @jbmanning5!)
For reference, Dan stated that on 10/13/17 in Everything Else>Shipping date on glowforge .com/account>post #273
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I just discovered that my estimated shipping date has moved from December 13 to Dec 27, 2017. Two more weeks of waiting. What is going on?!!?!
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My ‘start the shipping process’ date slipped from Nov 24 to Dec 5.
Edit: Pro order from Oct 23, 2015.